NBA games

NY @ PHI

NBA Xfinity Mobile Arena ·Final
97–92
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
NY1730302097
PHI2722271692

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (PHI) / 10 (NY) games this season
NY away
home PHI
35% 65%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jalen Brunson S 44 47 4 10
OG Anunoby S 47 16 14 0
Miles McBride 27 13 4 0
Donte DiVincenzo S 28 8 2 0
Isaiah Hartenstein S 28 8 4 2
Josh Hart S 46 4 17 5
Precious Achiuwa 20 1 7 2
Bojan Bogdanovic 1 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Joel Embiid S 44 27 10 6
Tyrese Maxey S 43 23 6 6
Kelly Oubre Jr. S 40 19 3 2
Tobias Harris S 34 10 8 0
Kyle Lowry S 33 7 5 7
Cameron Payne 14 5 1 0
Nicolas Batum 21 1 7 1
Paul Reed 4 0 1 0
De'Anthony Melton 7 0 1 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Joel Embiid · Dunk (2 pts) · 11:03 Q1
"Joel Embiid makes dunk (Kelly Oubre Jr. assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jericho Sims NY
14%
2 Jalen Brunson NY
12%
3 Tyrese Maxey PHI
10%
4 Joel Embiid PHI
10%
5 Kelly Oubre Jr. PHI
8%
6 Tobias Harris PHI
8%
7 Josh Hart NY
8%
8 Isaiah Hartenstein NY
7%
9 OG Anunoby NY
6%
10 Mo Bamba PHI
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
4%
Dunk
70%
Free Throw
3%
Jumper
14%
Layup
10%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jalen Brunson NY 36.5 4.1 8.9
2 Joel Embiid PHI 29.9 9.4 5.7
3 Tyrese Maxey PHI 27.5 3.9 6.5
4 Josh Hart NY 16.3 9.7 4.6
5 Donte DiVincenzo NY 15.3 4.5 3.2
6 Kelly Oubre Jr. PHI 15.0 5.9 2.2
7 Tobias Harris PHI 14.9 7.8 2.6
8 OG Anunoby NY 11.7 4.3 1.6
9 Isaiah Hartenstein NY 11.0 7.7 3.3
10 Miles McBride NY 11.0 2.8 2.1
11 Kyle Lowry PHI 9.4 3.3 3.8
12 Bojan Bogdanovic NY 7.9 2.2 1.0
13 Nicolas Batum PHI 6.8 4.1 1.8
14 Buddy Hield PHI 6.7 2.2 1.5
15 De'Anthony Melton PHI 6.5 2.2 1.5
16 Cameron Payne PHI 6.0 2.2 2.4
17 Paul Reed PHI 5.9 4.8 1.3
18 Mitchell Robinson NY 4.7 5.7 0.5
19 KJ Martin PHI 4.1 2.7 1.0
20 Mo Bamba PHI 4.1 4.7 0.6
21 Precious Achiuwa NY 4.0 3.8 0.6
22 Alec Burks NY 3.3 1.3 0.7
23 Mamadi Diakite NY 3.0 1.5 0.3
24 Ricky Council IV PHI 3.0 0.7 0.7
25 Jeff Dowtin Jr. PHI 2.8 1.0 1.4
26 Shake Milton NY 2.5 1.7 0.7
27 Jericho Sims NY 1.4 2.3 0.3
28 DaQuan Jeffries NY 1.1 0.4 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.