NBA games

NY @ PHI

NBA Xfinity Mobile Arena ·Final
114–125
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
NY29292729114
PHI27284327125

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (PHI) / 10 (NY) games this season
NY away
home PHI
33% 67%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jalen Brunson S 45 39 2 13
Josh Hart S 43 20 6 6
OG Anunoby S 39 17 4 2
Isaiah Hartenstein S 26 14 4 1
Miles McBride 22 8 2 1
Bojan Bogdanovic 13 5 3 1
Donte DiVincenzo S 28 5 4 3
Precious Achiuwa 10 4 0 0
Mitchell Robinson 12 2 7 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Joel Embiid S 41 50 8 4
Tyrese Maxey S 41 25 4 7
Kelly Oubre Jr. S 38 15 7 3
Cameron Payne 16 11 1 3
Kyle Lowry S 31 9 2 4
Tobias Harris S 33 8 5 0
Nicolas Batum 29 4 6 2
Paul Reed 7 3 3 1
Buddy Hield 4 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Joel Embiid · Layup (2 pts) · 11:44 Q1
"Joel Embiid makes driving layup (Tyrese Maxey assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jalen Brunson NY
15%
2 Jericho Sims NY
13%
3 Joel Embiid PHI
10%
4 Tyrese Maxey PHI
10%
5 Kelly Oubre Jr. PHI
8%
6 Tobias Harris PHI
7%
7 Isaiah Hartenstein NY
7%
8 Josh Hart NY
7%
9 Donte DiVincenzo NY
6%
10 OG Anunoby NY
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
15%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
35%
Jumper
26%
Layup
21%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jalen Brunson NY 30.0 4.0 8.5
2 Joel Embiid PHI 27.7 9.4 5.4
3 Tyrese Maxey PHI 25.6 4.2 6.6
4 Donte DiVincenzo NY 16.8 4.4 3.6
5 Kelly Oubre Jr. PHI 15.6 5.7 2.1
6 Josh Hart NY 15.5 9.8 4.6
7 Tobias Harris PHI 15.5 7.7 2.6
8 Miles McBride NY 12.2 2.9 2.5
9 OG Anunoby NY 11.9 4.4 1.6
10 Isaiah Hartenstein NY 11.2 8.5 3.7
11 Kyle Lowry PHI 9.8 3.3 3.7
12 Bojan Bogdanovic NY 8.4 2.4 1.0
13 Buddy Hield PHI 7.1 2.3 1.5
14 Nicolas Batum PHI 6.8 3.6 1.8
15 Paul Reed PHI 6.5 5.8 1.3
16 De'Anthony Melton PHI 6.3 2.2 1.4
17 Cameron Payne PHI 5.7 1.9 2.1
18 Mitchell Robinson NY 4.1 5.0 0.5
19 Mo Bamba PHI 4.1 4.6 0.6
20 KJ Martin PHI 4.0 2.7 0.9
21 Precious Achiuwa NY 3.7 3.9 0.5
22 Alec Burks NY 3.2 1.3 0.7
23 Mamadi Diakite NY 3.0 1.5 0.3
24 Ricky Council IV PHI 2.9 0.7 0.7
25 Jacob Toppin NY 2.8 1.5 0.5
26 Jeff Dowtin Jr. PHI 2.8 1.0 1.3
27 Shake Milton NY 2.4 1.7 0.7
28 Charlie Brown Jr. NY 2.3 1.1 0.5
29 D.J. Wilson PHI 2.1 0.9 0.6
30 Terquavion Smith PHI 1.9 0.5 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.