NBA games

PHI @ NY

NBA Madison Square Garden ·Final
101–104
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
PHI25282127101
NY18313025104

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (NY) / 10 (PHI) games this season
PHI away
home NY
57% 43%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Tyrese Maxey S 44 35 9 10
Joel Embiid S 39 34 10 6
Tobias Harris S 41 10 9 3
Kyle Lowry S 34 8 6 3
Nicolas Batum 33 6 5 1
Kelly Oubre Jr. S 26 4 2 3
Paul Reed 9 2 2 0
Buddy Hield 15 2 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jalen Brunson S 38 24 8 6
Josh Hart S 48 21 15 3
Donte DiVincenzo S 37 19 4 3
Isaiah Hartenstein S 30 14 8 4
OG Anunoby S 37 10 4 1
Miles McBride 21 9 1 2
Bojan Bogdanovic 12 6 2 2
Mitchell Robinson 18 1 4 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Tyrese Maxey · 3PT (3 pts) · 10:55 Q1
"Tyrese Maxey makes 25-foot three point jumper (Joel Embiid assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jericho Sims NY
15%
2 Jalen Brunson NY
12%
3 Tyrese Maxey PHI
9%
4 Kelly Oubre Jr. PHI
8%
5 Josh Hart NY
8%
6 Tobias Harris PHI
8%
7 Isaiah Hartenstein NY
8%
8 Donte DiVincenzo NY
7%
9 Joel Embiid PHI
6%
10 OG Anunoby NY
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
3%
Dunk
74%
Free Throw
3%
Jumper
10%
Layup
10%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Joel Embiid PHI 29.9 9.9 5.4
2 Jalen Brunson NY 29.9 3.9 8.8
3 Tyrese Maxey PHI 26.3 3.9 6.0
4 Kelly Oubre Jr. PHI 17.5 6.0 2.3
5 Donte DiVincenzo NY 17.1 4.2 3.3
6 Tobias Harris PHI 15.9 7.7 2.5
7 Josh Hart NY 14.3 9.7 4.9
8 OG Anunoby NY 12.1 4.5 1.8
9 Miles McBride NY 12.1 3.0 2.6
10 Isaiah Hartenstein NY 11.1 8.0 3.8
11 Kyle Lowry PHI 10.0 2.9 3.7
12 Bojan Bogdanovic NY 9.2 2.5 1.0
13 Buddy Hield PHI 8.2 2.7 1.8
14 Nicolas Batum PHI 7.7 3.8 1.9
15 Paul Reed PHI 7.6 6.1 1.3
16 Cameron Payne PHI 6.5 2.3 2.4
17 Mitchell Robinson NY 5.0 5.7 0.6
18 Mo Bamba PHI 4.3 5.0 0.6
19 KJ Martin PHI 4.0 2.7 0.9
20 Precious Achiuwa NY 3.9 4.4 0.5
21 Alec Burks NY 3.3 1.3 0.7
22 Ricky Council IV PHI 3.1 0.8 0.6
23 Mamadi Diakite NY 3.0 1.5 0.3
24 Jeff Dowtin Jr. PHI 2.9 1.1 1.3
25 Shake Milton NY 2.4 1.7 0.7
26 Jericho Sims NY 1.4 2.3 0.3
27 DaQuan Jeffries NY 1.0 0.4 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.