MIA @ BOS
NBA
TD Garden
·Final
84–118
Final
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIA | 23 | 23 | 20 | 18 | 84 |
| BOS | 41 | 27 | 30 | 20 | 118 |
Statlab take
baseline_gbm
Last 10 (BOS) / 10 (MIA) games this season
MIA
away
home
BOS
31%
69%
GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.
Box score
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bam Adebayo S | 36 | 23 | 5 | 6 |
| Tyler Herro S | 35 | 15 | 3 | 3 |
| Thomas Bryant | 12 | 10 | 3 | 1 |
| Caleb Martin S | 36 | 10 | 4 | 1 |
| Delon Wright S | 32 | 8 | 3 | 2 |
| Nikola Jovic S | 28 | 8 | 7 | 4 |
| Haywood Highsmith | 23 | 4 | 3 | 0 |
| Duncan Robinson | 17 | 2 | 1 | 2 |
| Patty Mills | 17 | 2 | 0 | 1 |
| Kevin Love | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
First basket
scorer · ROC 0.80Actual
Jaylen Brown ·
Layup (2 pts) · 11:15 Q1
"Jaylen Brown makes driving layup (Al Horford assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1
Bam Adebayo
MIA
12%
2
Jayson Tatum
BOS
11%
3
Jaylen Brown
BOS
10%
4
Jimmy Butler III
MIA
10%
5
Jaime Jaquez Jr.
MIA
8%
6
Tyler Herro
MIA
8%
7
Jrue Holiday
BOS
7%
8
Derrick White
BOS
7%
9
Terry Rozier
MIA
7%
10
Jordan Walsh
BOS
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
13%
Dunk
8%
Free Throw
16%
Jumper
33%
Layup
30%
Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.
Statlab projections
| # | Player | Team | Pred PTS | Pred REB | Pred AST |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jayson Tatum | BOS | 22.7 | 7.8 | 5.3 |
| 2 | Tyler Herro | MIA | 21.5 | 4.5 | 6.2 |
| 3 | Jaylen Brown | BOS | 21.3 | 6.3 | 3.3 |
| 4 | Jimmy Butler III | MIA | 18.0 | 4.4 | 4.9 |
| 5 | Bam Adebayo | MIA | 17.0 | 7.7 | 3.1 |
| 6 | Terry Rozier | MIA | 15.7 | 3.0 | 3.1 |
| 7 | Derrick White | BOS | 15.6 | 3.8 | 3.8 |
| 8 | Payton Pritchard | BOS | 14.5 | 3.4 | 5.4 |
| 9 | Jaime Jaquez Jr. | MIA | 13.7 | 4.1 | 3.4 |
| 10 | Jrue Holiday | BOS | 9.8 | 4.5 | 3.3 |
| 11 | Nikola Jovic | MIA | 9.6 | 5.4 | 1.7 |
| 12 | Al Horford | BOS | 9.4 | 5.5 | 1.6 |
| 13 | Caleb Martin | MIA | 9.3 | 3.7 | 1.9 |
| 14 | Josh Richardson | MIA | 8.7 | 3.1 | 1.7 |
| 15 | Sam Hauser | BOS | 8.3 | 3.3 | 1.6 |
| 16 | Delon Wright | MIA | 7.5 | 2.7 | 1.9 |
| 17 | Haywood Highsmith | MIA | 7.5 | 3.8 | 1.5 |
| 18 | Thomas Bryant | MIA | 7.0 | 5.0 | 0.5 |
| 19 | Patty Mills | MIA | 5.9 | 1.3 | 1.3 |
| 20 | Kevin Love | MIA | 5.3 | 3.8 | 0.8 |
| 21 | Duncan Robinson | MIA | 5.1 | 1.9 | 1.1 |
| 22 | Luke Kornet | BOS | 5.1 | 3.8 | 0.9 |
| 23 | Svi Mykhailiuk | BOS | 4.3 | 1.2 | 1.0 |
| 24 | Neemias Queta | BOS | 4.3 | 3.5 | 0.6 |
| 25 | Xavier Tillman | BOS | 2.8 | 1.5 | 0.7 |
| 26 | Oshae Brissett | BOS | 2.4 | 2.5 | 0.5 |
| 27 | Jaden Springer | BOS | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.5 |
| 28 | Orlando Robinson | MIA | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.5 |
| 29 | Jordan Walsh | BOS | 1.2 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.