NBA games

BOS @ MIA

NBA Kaseya Center ·Final
102–88
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
BOS34192821102
MIA2412232988

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MIA) / 10 (BOS) games this season
BOS away
home MIA
74% 26%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Derrick White S 41 38 4 3
Jayson Tatum S 37 20 11 5
Jaylen Brown S 39 17 5 2
Jrue Holiday S 38 11 6 6
Kristaps Porzingis S 14 7 3 0
Al Horford 34 7 8 2
Luke Kornet 3 2 4 0
Payton Pritchard 18 0 2 3
Sam Hauser 16 0 3 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Bam Adebayo S 42 25 17 5
Tyler Herro S 44 19 4 4
Caleb Martin S 37 18 5 2
Jaime Jaquez Jr. S 22 9 2 2
Patty Mills 22 9 1 1
Haywood Highsmith 19 3 2 0
Nikola Jovic S 16 3 3 0
Delon Wright 29 2 4 1
Duncan Robinson 3 0 0 1
Kevin Love 6 0 4 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jayson Tatum BOS
12%
2 Bam Adebayo MIA
11%
3 Kristaps Porzingis BOS
9%
4 Jaylen Brown BOS
9%
5 Jimmy Butler III MIA
9%
6 Jrue Holiday BOS
7%
7 Nikola Jovic MIA
7%
8 Derrick White BOS
7%
9 Tyler Herro MIA
6%
10 Caleb Martin MIA
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
16%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
13%
Jumper
46%
Layup
20%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jayson Tatum BOS 23.4 7.7 5.3
2 Tyler Herro MIA 21.1 4.7 6.3
3 Jaylen Brown BOS 21.0 6.1 3.1
4 Jimmy Butler III MIA 18.1 4.4 5.0
5 Kristaps Porzingis BOS 17.1 8.0 2.7
6 Bam Adebayo MIA 16.5 7.5 2.8
7 Payton Pritchard BOS 15.7 3.6 5.5
8 Terry Rozier MIA 15.6 3.0 3.1
9 Derrick White BOS 14.0 3.8 4.3
10 Jaime Jaquez Jr. MIA 13.6 4.0 3.4
11 Nikola Jovic MIA 11.2 5.3 1.8
12 Jrue Holiday BOS 9.9 4.9 3.5
13 Caleb Martin MIA 9.6 3.7 2.0
14 Al Horford BOS 9.2 5.6 1.6
15 Josh Richardson MIA 8.8 3.1 1.7
16 Sam Hauser BOS 8.5 3.1 1.6
17 Thomas Bryant MIA 8.0 5.2 0.7
18 Haywood Highsmith MIA 7.0 3.9 1.7
19 Delon Wright MIA 6.3 2.2 1.9
20 Patty Mills MIA 5.6 1.2 1.4
21 Kevin Love MIA 5.5 3.5 0.9
22 Duncan Robinson MIA 5.4 2.3 1.2
23 Svi Mykhailiuk BOS 5.1 1.5 1.3
24 Luke Kornet BOS 5.0 3.7 1.0
25 Neemias Queta BOS 4.4 3.4 0.6
26 Oshae Brissett BOS 3.2 2.8 0.7
27 Xavier Tillman BOS 2.8 1.5 0.7
28 Orlando Robinson MIA 2.2 1.1 0.7
29 Jaden Springer BOS 1.9 1.1 0.5
30 Jordan Walsh BOS 1.3 1.4 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.