NBA games

BOS @ MIA

NBA Kaseya Center ·Final
104–84
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
BOS21422417104
MIA1227222384

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MIA) / 10 (BOS) games this season
BOS away
home MIA
65% 35%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jayson Tatum S 39 22 11 6
Jaylen Brown S 33 22 8 3
Kristaps Porzingis S 27 18 5 2
Derrick White S 31 16 5 3
Al Horford 22 9 6 1
Payton Pritchard 25 7 3 1
Sam Hauser 20 5 0 0
Jrue Holiday S 35 3 2 6
Luke Kornet 5 2 1 0
Svi Mykhailiuk 1 0 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Bam Adebayo S 39 20 9 3
Nikola Jovic S 34 15 8 1
Tyler Herro S 33 15 2 2
Jaime Jaquez Jr. S 34 12 5 5
Haywood Highsmith 32 8 3 5
Patty Mills 12 7 0 1
Caleb Martin S 38 5 3 2
Thomas Bryant 6 2 2 0
Duncan Robinson 7 0 1 1
Orlando Robinson 2 0 1 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Kristaps Porzingis · 3PT (3 pts) · 10:14 Q1
"Kristaps Porzingis makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jaylen Brown assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Bam Adebayo MIA
11%
2 Jayson Tatum BOS
9%
3 Kristaps Porzingis BOS
9%
4 Jimmy Butler III MIA
8%
5 Jaylen Brown BOS
8%
6 Jrue Holiday BOS
7%
7 Luke Kornet BOS
6%
8 Tyler Herro MIA
6%
9 Derrick White BOS
6%
10 Terry Rozier MIA
5%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
11%
Dunk
10%
Free Throw
28%
Jumper
21%
Layup
30%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jayson Tatum BOS 24.6 7.5 5.3
2 Jaylen Brown BOS 22.1 5.8 3.1
3 Tyler Herro MIA 21.5 4.7 6.4
4 Jimmy Butler III MIA 18.3 4.6 5.1
5 Kristaps Porzingis BOS 17.5 8.1 2.9
6 Bam Adebayo MIA 16.6 7.8 3.3
7 Payton Pritchard BOS 16.0 3.6 5.9
8 Terry Rozier MIA 15.8 3.1 3.2
9 Derrick White BOS 13.9 3.6 4.4
10 Jaime Jaquez Jr. MIA 13.3 3.9 3.1
11 Nikola Jovic MIA 10.7 5.3 1.8
12 Jrue Holiday BOS 10.4 5.2 3.4
13 Sam Hauser BOS 10.1 3.7 1.6
14 Al Horford BOS 9.8 5.6 1.7
15 Caleb Martin MIA 9.7 3.8 2.0
16 Josh Richardson MIA 8.8 3.1 1.7
17 Duncan Robinson MIA 7.5 2.5 1.6
18 Delon Wright MIA 7.0 2.6 2.2
19 Haywood Highsmith MIA 6.8 4.1 1.5
20 Thomas Bryant MIA 6.6 5.0 0.6
21 Kevin Love MIA 6.3 3.8 0.9
22 Neemias Queta BOS 4.4 3.5 0.6
23 Patty Mills MIA 3.9 0.9 1.1
24 Svi Mykhailiuk BOS 3.8 1.1 1.0
25 Luke Kornet BOS 3.6 2.8 0.7
26 Xavier Tillman BOS 2.8 1.5 0.7
27 Oshae Brissett BOS 2.5 2.0 0.5
28 Jaden Springer BOS 1.9 1.1 0.5
29 Jordan Walsh BOS 1.3 1.4 0.3
30 Orlando Robinson MIA 1.2 0.7 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.