NBA games

MIA @ BOS

NBA TD Garden ·Final
111–101
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MIA28302726111
BOS27341822101

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (BOS) / 10 (MIA) games this season
MIA away
home BOS
31% 69%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Tyler Herro S 39 24 5 14
Caleb Martin S 36 21 2 0
Bam Adebayo S 40 21 10 2
Jaime Jaquez Jr. S 31 14 2 1
Nikola Jovic S 25 11 9 6
Haywood Highsmith 26 9 3 0
Duncan Robinson 17 6 1 0
Delon Wright 20 5 4 1
Kevin Love 6 0 4 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jaylen Brown S 37 33 8 1
Jayson Tatum S 41 28 8 3
Derrick White S 36 13 1 4
Jrue Holiday S 37 9 3 2
Sam Hauser 15 6 2 1
Kristaps Porzingis S 30 6 8 4
Al Horford 23 6 8 3
Payton Pritchard 20 0 1 3

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Derrick White · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:06 Q1
"Derrick White makes driving floating jump shot (Jrue Holiday assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Bam Adebayo MIA
11%
2 Jayson Tatum BOS
10%
3 Kristaps Porzingis BOS
9%
4 Jimmy Butler III MIA
8%
5 Jaylen Brown BOS
8%
6 Jrue Holiday BOS
8%
7 Nikola Jovic MIA
7%
8 Tyler Herro MIA
6%
9 Derrick White BOS
6%
10 Jaime Jaquez Jr. MIA
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
14%
Dunk
9%
Free Throw
11%
Jumper
32%
Layup
34%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jayson Tatum BOS 24.6 7.1 5.9
2 Jaylen Brown BOS 21.1 5.7 3.3
3 Tyler Herro MIA 20.9 5.1 5.8
4 Jimmy Butler III MIA 19.0 4.7 5.0
5 Kristaps Porzingis BOS 17.1 7.9 2.6
6 Bam Adebayo MIA 16.4 7.8 3.2
7 Payton Pritchard BOS 16.0 3.8 5.8
8 Terry Rozier MIA 15.8 3.1 3.1
9 Derrick White BOS 14.7 4.0 5.1
10 Jaime Jaquez Jr. MIA 12.0 3.9 3.0
11 Al Horford BOS 10.7 5.4 1.8
12 Jrue Holiday BOS 10.3 5.0 3.6
13 Nikola Jovic MIA 9.9 4.5 1.3
14 Sam Hauser BOS 9.9 3.7 1.7
15 Caleb Martin MIA 9.2 3.6 2.2
16 Josh Richardson MIA 8.7 3.1 1.7
17 Duncan Robinson MIA 8.4 2.6 1.8
18 Delon Wright MIA 7.3 2.6 2.1
19 Kevin Love MIA 7.1 4.9 1.0
20 Thomas Bryant MIA 6.9 5.1 0.6
21 Haywood Highsmith MIA 6.7 4.6 1.6
22 Neemias Queta BOS 4.5 3.5 0.7
23 Patty Mills MIA 4.3 0.9 1.1
24 Svi Mykhailiuk BOS 4.1 1.1 1.0
25 Xavier Tillman BOS 3.1 1.5 0.7
26 Oshae Brissett BOS 2.7 2.1 0.6
27 Jaden Springer BOS 2.0 1.1 0.5
28 Orlando Robinson MIA 1.4 0.7 0.4
29 Jordan Walsh BOS 1.4 1.4 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.