NBA games

LAC @ DAL

NBA American Airlines Center ·Final
101–114
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
LAC26262029101
DAL34183527114

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (DAL) / 10 (LAC) games this season
LAC away
home DAL
21% 79%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Norman Powell 36 20 4 0
Paul George S 42 18 11 5
Ivica Zubac S 37 17 11 1
James Harden S 43 16 7 13
Terance Mann S 39 14 6 3
P.J. Tucker S 20 8 2 0
Russell Westbrook 9 6 1 1
Amir Coffey 8 2 2 0
Kobe Brown 1 0 1 0
Brandon Boston 1 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kyrie Irving S 42 30 6 4
Luka Doncic S 43 28 7 13
P.J. Washington S 35 14 5 2
Daniel Gafford S 22 13 6 0
Dereck Lively II 24 10 9 3
Josh Green 21 7 4 1
Derrick Jones Jr. S 36 6 5 2
Maxi Kleber 5 4 1 0
Dante Exum 7 2 1 1
A.J. Lawson 1 0 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Luka Doncic · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:40 Q1
"Luka Doncic makes 11-foot two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Paul George LAC
14%
2 Ivica Zubac LAC
14%
3 Kyrie Irving DAL
13%
4 Daniel Gafford DAL
10%
5 James Harden LAC
10%
6 P.J. Washington DAL
9%
7 Derrick Jones Jr. DAL
9%
8 Terance Mann LAC
8%
9 Amir Coffey LAC
7%
10 Luka Doncic DAL
5%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
33%
Dunk
7%
Free Throw
12%
Jumper
31%
Layup
18%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Luka Doncic DAL 30.6 9.8 9.3
2 Kyrie Irving DAL 26.6 5.5 5.2
3 Paul George LAC 21.7 5.5 4.4
4 James Harden LAC 19.6 4.4 7.1
5 Ivica Zubac LAC 14.2 9.9 1.4
6 P.J. Washington DAL 12.2 6.0 1.7
7 Norman Powell LAC 10.7 2.9 1.2
8 Terance Mann LAC 10.3 4.5 1.4
9 Derrick Jones Jr. DAL 9.9 3.6 1.2
10 Russell Westbrook LAC 9.8 5.5 3.8
11 Amir Coffey LAC 8.4 2.9 1.2
12 Daniel Gafford DAL 8.2 4.9 1.3
13 Bones Hyland LAC 7.7 2.3 2.3
14 Brandon Boston LAC 7.6 2.8 1.1
15 Dereck Lively II DAL 7.2 6.3 0.9
16 Maxi Kleber DAL 6.9 3.6 1.6
17 Daniel Theis LAC 6.0 4.3 0.9
18 Jaden Hardy DAL 5.5 1.9 1.2
19 Mason Plumlee LAC 5.2 5.1 1.3
20 Josh Green DAL 5.2 3.0 1.0
21 Dante Exum DAL 5.0 2.4 1.8
22 P.J. Tucker LAC 3.5 1.9 0.6
23 Kobe Brown LAC 3.3 1.9 0.7
24 A.J. Lawson DAL 3.2 1.7 0.7
25 Dwight Powell DAL 2.6 2.7 0.8
26 Markieff Morris DAL 2.1 0.8 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.