NBA games

DAL @ LAC

NBA crypto.com Arena ·Final
123–93
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DAL25313334123
LAC2422232493

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (LAC) / 10 (DAL) games this season
DAL away
home LAC
64% 36%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Luka Doncic S 39 35 7 10
Maxi Kleber 19 15 3 1
Kyrie Irving S 35 14 4 6
Jaden Hardy 6 14 0 1
Derrick Jones Jr. S 30 12 3 1
Dereck Lively II 25 12 7 1
Daniel Gafford S 19 8 5 0
Josh Green 18 4 2 0
Dante Exum 10 4 1 4
A.J. Lawson 6 3 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Ivica Zubac S 26 15 6 2
Paul George S 33 15 11 4
Norman Powell 24 14 2 0
Terance Mann S 32 11 7 1
Bones Hyland 7 11 1 3
James Harden S 33 7 4 7
Russell Westbrook 16 6 5 0
Amir Coffey S 27 3 1 0
P.J. Tucker 10 3 1 0
Daniel Theis 4 3 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Kyrie Irving · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:43 Q1
"Kyrie Irving makes 5-foot two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Kyrie Irving DAL
14%
2 Ivica Zubac LAC
13%
3 P.J. Washington DAL
11%
4 James Harden LAC
10%
5 Daniel Gafford DAL
9%
6 Paul George LAC
9%
7 Terance Mann LAC
8%
8 Derrick Jones Jr. DAL
8%
9 P.J. Tucker LAC
7%
10 Amir Coffey LAC
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
8%
Dunk
1%
Free Throw
60%
Jumper
17%
Layup
13%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Luka Doncic DAL 30.3 9.8 8.5
2 Kyrie Irving DAL 26.3 5.3 4.8
3 Paul George LAC 22.0 4.8 4.3
4 James Harden LAC 19.2 4.7 7.5
5 Ivica Zubac LAC 14.1 10.0 1.4
6 P.J. Washington DAL 13.0 6.1 1.8
7 Terance Mann LAC 11.0 4.2 1.5
8 Russell Westbrook LAC 11.0 5.2 3.9
9 Norman Powell LAC 10.5 2.7 1.3
10 Derrick Jones Jr. DAL 9.6 3.7 1.0
11 Amir Coffey LAC 8.9 3.0 1.2
12 Daniel Gafford DAL 7.7 4.6 1.3
13 Brandon Boston LAC 7.7 3.0 1.0
14 Dereck Lively II DAL 6.6 6.0 0.8
15 Maxi Kleber DAL 5.6 3.5 1.5
16 Bones Hyland LAC 5.6 1.9 2.1
17 Josh Green DAL 4.8 2.7 1.1
18 Daniel Theis LAC 4.3 3.4 0.7
19 Mason Plumlee LAC 4.3 4.9 1.3
20 Dante Exum DAL 4.2 2.4 1.7
21 Jaden Hardy DAL 3.9 1.7 1.1
22 A.J. Lawson DAL 2.3 1.2 0.4
23 Kobe Brown LAC 2.3 1.4 0.5
24 P.J. Tucker LAC 2.1 1.8 0.5
25 Markieff Morris DAL 2.0 0.7 0.4
26 Dwight Powell DAL 1.6 2.0 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.