NBA games

LAC @ DAL

NBA American Airlines Center ·Final
116–111
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
LAC39271634116
DAL16332933111

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (DAL) / 10 (LAC) games this season
LAC away
home DAL
58% 42%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Paul George S 43 33 6 8
James Harden S 40 33 6 7
Ivica Zubac S 30 13 4 1
Norman Powell 32 11 0 0
Terance Mann S 35 11 3 2
Mason Plumlee 14 6 4 3
Russell Westbrook 22 5 3 1
Amir Coffey S 23 4 3 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kyrie Irving S 45 40 7 5
Luka Doncic S 45 29 10 10
Derrick Jones Jr. S 33 14 7 1
P.J. Washington S 41 10 4 1
Dereck Lively II 18 8 6 1
Daniel Gafford S 19 5 5 2
Maxi Kleber 22 3 2 1
Josh Green 13 2 1 1
Jaden Hardy 3 0 0 0
Dante Exum 2 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Luka Doncic · Free Throw (1 pts) · 10:14 Q1
"Luka Doncic makes free throw 1 of 2"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Luka Doncic DAL
33%
2 Ivica Zubac LAC
10%
3 Daniel Gafford DAL
8%
4 P.J. Washington DAL
8%
5 James Harden LAC
8%
6 Paul George LAC
8%
7 Kyrie Irving DAL
7%
8 Derrick Jones Jr. DAL
6%
9 Terance Mann LAC
6%
10 P.J. Tucker LAC
5%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
1%
Dunk
0%
Free Throw
98%
Jumper
0%
Layup
1%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Luka Doncic DAL 30.1 10.0 9.1
2 Kyrie Irving DAL 26.1 4.9 5.0
3 Paul George LAC 22.3 5.0 3.9
4 James Harden LAC 17.0 4.7 6.8
5 Ivica Zubac LAC 14.9 10.5 1.4
6 P.J. Washington DAL 14.3 6.4 1.9
7 Russell Westbrook LAC 11.9 5.8 4.4
8 Norman Powell LAC 11.1 3.0 1.3
9 Terance Mann LAC 10.6 4.4 1.4
10 Amir Coffey LAC 9.6 3.5 1.2
11 Daniel Gafford DAL 8.7 5.1 1.4
12 Brandon Boston LAC 8.4 3.4 1.2
13 Derrick Jones Jr. DAL 8.4 3.6 1.1
14 Dereck Lively II DAL 7.9 6.3 0.8
15 Bones Hyland LAC 6.6 2.3 2.4
16 Maxi Kleber DAL 6.3 3.9 1.6
17 Josh Green DAL 5.6 3.1 1.2
18 Dante Exum DAL 5.3 3.0 2.0
19 Jaden Hardy DAL 4.9 2.2 1.2
20 Mason Plumlee LAC 4.8 4.8 1.2
21 Daniel Theis LAC 4.3 3.4 0.7
22 Kobe Brown LAC 3.3 2.0 0.7
23 A.J. Lawson DAL 3.2 1.8 0.7
24 Dwight Powell DAL 2.6 2.6 0.7
25 P.J. Tucker LAC 2.1 1.8 0.5
26 Markieff Morris DAL 2.0 0.8 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.