NBA games

LAC @ DAL

NBA American Airlines Center ·Final
90–101
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
LAC2318262390
DAL18362423101

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (DAL) / 10 (LAC) games this season
LAC away
home DAL
42% 58%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Norman Powell 30 21 6 1
James Harden S 44 21 2 5
Ivica Zubac S 32 19 8 1
Kawhi Leonard S 25 9 9 2
Mason Plumlee 10 7 1 0
Paul George S 30 7 5 5
Brandon Boston 3 3 1 0
Terance Mann S 23 2 3 2
Russell Westbrook 19 1 3 1
Bones Hyland 3 0 1 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Luka Doncic S 40 22 10 9
Kyrie Irving S 37 21 4 6
Dereck Lively II 15 13 2 0
Derrick Jones Jr. S 27 11 3 0
P.J. Washington S 34 10 5 1
Daniel Gafford S 26 8 4 0
Josh Green 25 8 5 0
Maxi Kleber 16 3 1 3
Dwight Powell 3 2 1 0
A.J. Lawson 2 2 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Daniel Gafford · Layup (2 pts) · 11:36 Q1
"Daniel Gafford makes two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Luka Doncic DAL
34%
2 Ivica Zubac LAC
9%
3 Kawhi Leonard LAC
7%
4 Kyrie Irving DAL
7%
5 James Harden LAC
7%
6 Paul George LAC
7%
7 Daniel Gafford DAL
6%
8 P.J. Washington DAL
6%
9 Derrick Jones Jr. DAL
5%
10 Terance Mann LAC
5%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
31%
Dunk
1%
Free Throw
42%
Jumper
12%
Layup
14%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Luka Doncic DAL 29.9 10.4 8.5
2 Kyrie Irving DAL 26.6 4.9 4.6
3 Kawhi Leonard LAC 22.7 6.3 3.2
4 Paul George LAC 22.1 4.9 3.8
5 James Harden LAC 16.6 5.3 8.3
6 P.J. Washington DAL 15.1 6.4 1.9
7 Ivica Zubac LAC 14.8 10.5 1.5
8 Russell Westbrook LAC 12.2 5.8 4.6
9 Terance Mann LAC 11.1 4.2 1.4
10 Norman Powell LAC 10.8 2.6 1.3
11 Amir Coffey LAC 9.6 3.5 1.2
12 Daniel Gafford DAL 8.3 5.2 1.6
13 Derrick Jones Jr. DAL 7.7 3.7 1.2
14 Brandon Boston LAC 6.9 2.6 0.9
15 Dereck Lively II DAL 6.8 6.3 0.8
16 Maxi Kleber DAL 6.3 3.9 1.6
17 Dante Exum DAL 6.1 2.9 2.1
18 Bones Hyland LAC 5.9 2.1 2.2
19 Josh Green DAL 5.6 3.0 1.4
20 Jaden Hardy DAL 4.6 2.0 1.0
21 Daniel Theis LAC 4.4 3.5 0.7
22 Mason Plumlee LAC 4.3 4.7 1.2
23 A.J. Lawson DAL 2.3 1.3 0.4
24 P.J. Tucker LAC 2.2 1.8 0.5
25 Markieff Morris DAL 2.2 0.9 0.4
26 Kobe Brown LAC 2.0 1.3 0.5
27 Dwight Powell DAL 1.7 2.1 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.