NBA games

DAL @ LAC

NBA crypto.com Arena ·Final
96–93
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DAL2322203196
LAC1922252793

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (LAC) / 10 (DAL) games this season
DAL away
home LAC
50% 50%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Luka Doncic S 46 32 6 9
Kyrie Irving S 42 23 6 3
P.J. Washington S 35 18 6 0
Derrick Jones Jr. S 32 10 7 0
Dereck Lively II 21 7 9 1
Maxi Kleber 28 6 6 1
Josh Green 14 0 7 1
Daniel Gafford S 9 0 1 1
Tim Hardaway Jr. 6 0 1 1
Dante Exum 6 0 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Paul George S 37 22 2 4
James Harden S 42 22 6 8
Kawhi Leonard S 35 15 7 2
Ivica Zubac S 33 13 12 0
Russell Westbrook 24 7 9 3
Norman Powell 26 6 4 0
Terance Mann S 21 5 2 1
Amir Coffey 12 2 0 0
Mason Plumlee 11 1 5 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Derrick Jones Jr. · Dunk (2 pts) · 11:17 Q1
"Derrick Jones Jr. makes dunk"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Ivica Zubac LAC
12%
2 Kawhi Leonard LAC
10%
3 Kyrie Irving DAL
10%
4 James Harden LAC
9%
5 Paul George LAC
9%
6 P.J. Washington DAL
9%
7 Daniel Gafford DAL
9%
8 Amir Coffey LAC
7%
9 Terance Mann LAC
7%
10 Derrick Jones Jr. DAL
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
1%
Dunk
34%
Free Throw
12%
Jumper
26%
Layup
28%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Luka Doncic DAL 29.1 10.6 8.9
2 Kyrie Irving DAL 25.8 4.9 5.0
3 Paul George LAC 21.9 5.6 3.8
4 Kawhi Leonard LAC 21.7 5.9 3.1
5 James Harden LAC 14.9 4.8 8.2
6 Ivica Zubac LAC 14.0 10.3 1.5
7 P.J. Washington DAL 12.8 6.3 2.0
8 Russell Westbrook LAC 11.9 5.1 4.7
9 Terance Mann LAC 11.3 4.3 1.6
10 Norman Powell LAC 11.1 2.5 1.4
11 Amir Coffey LAC 9.6 3.5 1.4
12 Daniel Gafford DAL 8.7 5.7 1.6
13 Tim Hardaway Jr. DAL 7.8 2.6 1.4
14 Derrick Jones Jr. DAL 7.2 3.3 1.2
15 Dereck Lively II DAL 7.0 6.3 0.7
16 Brandon Boston LAC 6.9 2.7 1.0
17 Dante Exum DAL 6.4 3.1 2.4
18 Bones Hyland LAC 6.0 2.1 2.3
19 Maxi Kleber DAL 5.5 3.6 1.4
20 Josh Green DAL 5.5 2.6 1.3
21 Jaden Hardy DAL 5.4 2.3 1.2
22 Mason Plumlee LAC 4.8 4.8 1.3
23 Daniel Theis LAC 4.5 3.8 0.7
24 Olivier-Maxence Prosper DAL 4.0 1.9 0.6
25 A.J. Lawson DAL 2.9 1.7 0.6
26 Jordan Miller LAC 2.6 1.3 0.5
27 Dwight Powell DAL 2.4 2.5 0.7
28 P.J. Tucker LAC 2.2 1.9 0.5
29 Markieff Morris DAL 2.1 0.9 0.4
30 Kobe Brown LAC 2.0 1.4 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.