NBA games

MIN @ PHX

NBA Mortgage Matchup Center ·Final
122–116
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MIN25313432122
PHX26353124116

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (PHX) / 10 (MIN) games this season
MIN away
home PHX
62% 38%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Anthony Edwards S 41 40 9 6
Karl-Anthony Towns S 39 28 10 3
Jaden McDaniels S 34 18 3 0
Mike Conley S 34 10 4 7
Rudy Gobert S 25 9 5 1
Naz Reid 20 8 3 0
Nickeil Alexander-Walker 31 5 3 4
Kyle Anderson 17 4 7 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Devin Booker S 45 49 5 6
Kevin Durant S 46 33 9 5
Bradley Beal S 31 9 1 2
Jusuf Nurkic S 20 9 8 5
Eric Gordon 39 6 0 0
Royce O'Neale S 37 6 6 1
Josh Okogie 14 4 3 1
Nassir Little 7 0 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jusuf Nurkic · Dunk (2 pts) · 11:43 Q1
"Jusuf Nurkic makes 1-foot dunk (Devin Booker assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Bradley Beal PHX
12%
2 Kevin Durant PHX
12%
3 Rudy Gobert MIN
11%
4 Devin Booker PHX
11%
5 Anthony Edwards MIN
11%
6 Karl-Anthony Towns MIN
10%
7 Jusuf Nurkic PHX
10%
8 Jaden McDaniels MIN
8%
9 Royce O'Neale PHX
6%
10 Mike Conley MIN
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
34%
Dunk
7%
Free Throw
17%
Jumper
25%
Layup
17%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Anthony Edwards MIN 26.1 5.3 6.0
2 Devin Booker PHX 25.1 3.0 6.6
3 Kevin Durant PHX 24.2 5.2 3.9
4 Bradley Beal PHX 21.5 4.7 4.7
5 Karl-Anthony Towns MIN 18.0 7.6 3.9
6 Rudy Gobert MIN 15.4 11.2 2.2
7 Mike Conley MIN 13.6 3.6 5.1
8 Naz Reid MIN 12.5 4.9 1.6
9 Nickeil Alexander-Walker MIN 12.4 2.9 3.1
10 Jaden McDaniels MIN 10.3 4.1 1.5
11 Jusuf Nurkic PHX 9.7 9.6 4.5
12 Royce O'Neale PHX 7.4 4.2 1.7
13 Eric Gordon PHX 6.9 1.7 1.4
14 Kyle Anderson MIN 5.7 2.6 2.8
15 Monte Morris MIN 4.6 2.3 1.5
16 Drew Eubanks PHX 4.2 3.5 0.6
17 Jordan McLaughlin MIN 3.5 1.0 1.6
18 Josh Okogie PHX 3.4 1.4 0.7
19 Bol Bol PHX 3.4 2.2 0.5
20 Luka Garza MIN 3.2 1.3 0.3
21 T.J. Warren MIN 2.2 1.3 0.5
22 Nassir Little PHX 2.2 0.5 0.3
23 Thaddeus Young PHX 1.7 1.5 0.5
24 Josh Minott MIN 1.5 0.8 0.4
25 Wendell Moore Jr. MIN 1.4 0.8 0.3
26 Leonard Miller MIN 1.3 0.8 0.3
27 David Roddy PHX 1.3 0.8 0.3
28 Isaiah Thomas PHX 1.1 0.3 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.