NBA games

MIN @ PHX

NBA Mortgage Matchup Center ·Final
126–109
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MIN34253631126
PHX32212036109

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (PHX) / 10 (MIN) games this season
MIN away
home PHX
65% 35%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Anthony Edwards S 43 36 9 5
Rudy Gobert S 38 19 14 1
Karl-Anthony Towns S 24 18 13 2
Nickeil Alexander-Walker 33 16 2 5
Mike Conley S 34 15 4 7
Naz Reid 18 13 1 2
Jaden McDaniels S 30 5 4 1
Kyle Anderson 8 2 3 2
Monte Morris 9 2 0 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Bradley Beal S 43 28 4 4
Kevin Durant S 42 25 4 5
Devin Booker S 42 23 3 8
Eric Gordon 34 11 2 3
Drew Eubanks 11 9 1 0
Josh Okogie 9 8 1 1
Jusuf Nurkic S 26 3 7 1
Bol Bol 7 2 1 0
Royce O'Neale S 24 0 5 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Karl-Anthony Towns · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:03 Q1
"Karl-Anthony Towns makes 26-foot three point jumper (Mike Conley assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Kevin Durant PHX
17%
2 Anthony Edwards MIN
13%
3 Rudy Gobert MIN
12%
4 Devin Booker PHX
11%
5 Karl-Anthony Towns MIN
11%
6 Jusuf Nurkic PHX
10%
7 Bradley Beal PHX
10%
8 Jaden McDaniels MIN
9%
9 Mike Conley MIN
7%
10 Nickeil Alexander-Walker MIN
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
21%
Dunk
6%
Free Throw
17%
Jumper
38%
Layup
18%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Devin Booker PHX 26.1 3.2 6.8
2 Anthony Edwards MIN 24.8 4.9 5.5
3 Kevin Durant PHX 23.3 5.5 3.9
4 Bradley Beal PHX 21.0 5.4 4.9
5 Karl-Anthony Towns MIN 17.9 7.5 3.9
6 Rudy Gobert MIN 15.1 11.5 2.1
7 Naz Reid MIN 14.3 5.3 1.8
8 Mike Conley MIN 13.7 3.2 5.0
9 Nickeil Alexander-Walker MIN 11.0 2.7 2.5
10 Jaden McDaniels MIN 10.6 3.9 1.5
11 Jusuf Nurkic PHX 9.8 9.5 4.6
12 Royce O'Neale PHX 7.0 4.0 1.7
13 Eric Gordon PHX 5.9 1.5 1.3
14 Kyle Anderson MIN 4.8 2.0 2.4
15 Monte Morris MIN 4.0 2.0 1.5
16 Jordan McLaughlin MIN 4.0 1.1 1.8
17 Luka Garza MIN 3.7 1.4 0.5
18 Drew Eubanks PHX 3.4 3.3 0.6
19 Bol Bol PHX 2.8 1.9 0.5
20 T.J. Warren MIN 2.6 1.4 0.7
21 Nassir Little PHX 2.6 0.7 0.5
22 Josh Okogie PHX 2.6 1.2 0.6
23 Wendell Moore Jr. MIN 1.8 0.9 0.5
24 Thaddeus Young PHX 1.8 1.7 0.5
25 David Roddy PHX 1.7 1.0 0.5
26 Josh Minott MIN 1.6 0.7 0.4
27 Leonard Miller MIN 1.3 0.7 0.3
28 Isaiah Thomas PHX 1.3 0.4 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.