NBA games

PHX @ MIN

NBA Target Center ·Final
93–105
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
PHX2130202293
MIN24262827105

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MIN) / 10 (PHX) games this season
PHX away
home MIN
34% 66%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Devin Booker S 42 20 3 5
Kevin Durant S 41 18 6 2
Eric Gordon 23 15 3 1
Bradley Beal S 42 14 4 6
Jusuf Nurkic S 31 10 14 4
Drew Eubanks 17 8 2 0
Nassir Little 2 5 0 0
Grayson Allen S 17 3 3 0
David Roddy 2 0 0 0
Josh Okogie 2 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jaden McDaniels S 41 25 8 3
Mike Conley S 32 18 4 4
Rudy Gobert S 39 18 9 2
Anthony Edwards S 38 15 5 8
Karl-Anthony Towns S 24 12 8 1
Nickeil Alexander-Walker 31 10 2 5
Naz Reid 17 5 2 0
Monte Morris 11 2 0 0
Jordan McLaughlin 2 0 0 0
Wendell Moore Jr. 2 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Mike Conley · Layup (2 pts) · 10:25 Q1
"Mike Conley makes 1-foot two point shot (Anthony Edwards assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Anthony Edwards MIN
15%
2 Kevin Durant PHX
13%
3 Rudy Gobert MIN
11%
4 Karl-Anthony Towns MIN
11%
5 Jusuf Nurkic PHX
9%
6 Bradley Beal PHX
8%
7 Devin Booker PHX
8%
8 Grayson Allen PHX
8%
9 Mike Conley MIN
8%
10 Jaden McDaniels MIN
8%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
14%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
11%
Jumper
57%
Layup
13%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Devin Booker PHX 25.5 3.2 6.6
2 Anthony Edwards MIN 25.2 5.6 5.7
3 Kevin Durant PHX 23.2 5.4 3.8
4 Karl-Anthony Towns MIN 22.3 7.7 4.5
5 Bradley Beal PHX 20.4 5.4 4.8
6 Naz Reid MIN 15.3 5.6 2.2
7 Rudy Gobert MIN 15.2 11.7 2.1
8 Mike Conley MIN 14.0 3.2 5.4
9 Grayson Allen PHX 12.7 4.7 2.6
10 Nickeil Alexander-Walker MIN 10.4 2.6 2.2
11 Jaden McDaniels MIN 9.8 3.7 1.6
12 Jusuf Nurkic PHX 8.9 9.4 4.7
13 Royce O'Neale PHX 7.4 4.0 1.8
14 Eric Gordon PHX 5.6 1.5 1.2
15 Kyle Anderson MIN 5.3 2.3 2.7
16 Monte Morris MIN 4.6 2.3 1.6
17 Jordan McLaughlin MIN 4.5 1.2 2.1
18 Luka Garza MIN 4.4 1.5 0.6
19 Drew Eubanks PHX 3.2 3.6 0.6
20 Bol Bol PHX 3.1 2.2 0.5
21 Josh Okogie PHX 2.7 1.3 0.6
22 T.J. Warren MIN 2.7 1.5 0.8
23 Thaddeus Young PHX 2.3 1.9 0.7
24 Nassir Little PHX 2.2 0.7 0.4
25 Isaiah Thomas PHX 1.8 0.6 0.5
26 Wendell Moore Jr. MIN 1.8 1.0 0.6
27 Josh Minott MIN 1.7 0.8 0.4
28 Leonard Miller MIN 1.3 0.8 0.4
29 David Roddy PHX 1.1 0.8 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.