NBA games

LAL @ DEN

NBA Ball Arena ·Final
106–108
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
LAL24292627106
DEN28223127108

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (DEN) / 10 (LAL) games this season
LAL away
home DEN
42% 58%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
LeBron James S 44 30 9 11
Austin Reaves S 34 19 3 4
Anthony Davis S 40 17 15 4
Rui Hachimura S 34 15 5 1
D'Angelo Russell S 39 14 1 6
Spencer Dinwiddie 14 6 1 3
Taurean Prince 19 4 1 0
Jaxson Hayes 7 1 5 0
Gabe Vincent 9 0 1 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jamal Murray S 41 32 3 7
Michael Porter Jr. S 46 26 4 1
Nikola Jokic S 41 25 20 9
Reggie Jackson 18 8 2 1
Aaron Gordon S 46 7 13 6
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope S 33 5 3 3
Peyton Watson 5 3 0 1
Christian Braun 6 2 0 0
Justin Holiday 4 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jamal Murray · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:44 Q1
"Jamal Murray makes 5-foot driving floating jump shot (Nikola Jokic assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jamal Murray DEN
12%
2 Nikola Jokic DEN
12%
3 LeBron James LAL
11%
4 Aaron Gordon DEN
11%
5 Anthony Davis LAL
10%
6 Austin Reaves LAL
9%
7 Michael Porter Jr. DEN
8%
8 Jarred Vanderbilt LAL
8%
9 Rui Hachimura LAL
6%
10 D'Angelo Russell LAL
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
18%
Dunk
6%
Free Throw
18%
Jumper
40%
Layup
18%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 LeBron James LAL 31.0 7.6 9.2
2 Nikola Jokic DEN 28.6 13.2 9.3
3 Anthony Davis LAL 25.3 12.0 3.7
4 Jamal Murray DEN 23.9 5.0 6.1
5 Michael Porter Jr. DEN 17.5 6.7 2.0
6 D'Angelo Russell LAL 16.3 3.5 5.5
7 Austin Reaves LAL 16.3 3.8 3.6
8 Aaron Gordon DEN 16.0 7.1 5.2
9 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope DEN 11.7 2.9 2.2
10 Rui Hachimura LAL 11.3 4.7 1.3
11 Jarred Vanderbilt LAL 9.7 5.4 1.9
12 Taurean Prince LAL 8.0 2.9 1.1
13 Christian Braun DEN 7.9 3.9 1.8
14 Reggie Jackson DEN 6.7 1.8 2.2
15 Peyton Watson DEN 6.2 3.7 1.4
16 Spencer Dinwiddie LAL 5.5 2.1 1.5
17 Christian Wood LAL 5.5 3.2 0.7
18 Jaxson Hayes LAL 4.1 3.1 0.6
19 Justin Holiday DEN 4.1 1.4 1.2
20 Gabe Vincent LAL 3.8 1.6 0.9
21 DeAndre Jordan DEN 2.4 2.8 0.4
22 Zeke Nnaji DEN 2.2 1.8 0.4
23 Julian Strawther DEN 2.1 0.8 0.5
24 Hunter Tyson DEN 2.0 0.6 0.4
25 Max Christie LAL 1.6 0.7 0.3
26 Jalen Pickett DEN 1.4 0.5 0.7
27 Maxwell Lewis LAL 1.1 0.4 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.