NBA games

DEN @ LAL

NBA crypto.com Arena ·Final
108–119
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DEN23253228108
LAL28333028119

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (LAL) / 10 (DEN) games this season
DEN away
home LAL
48% 52%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Nikola Jokic S 41 33 14 14
Michael Porter Jr. S 40 27 11 1
Jamal Murray S 39 22 6 5
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope S 40 14 2 3
Aaron Gordon S 42 7 3 4
Justin Holiday 5 3 0 0
Peyton Watson 13 2 0 0
Reggie Jackson 9 0 2 2
Christian Braun 12 0 2 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
LeBron James S 39 30 5 4
Anthony Davis S 42 25 23 6
D'Angelo Russell S 41 21 4 4
Austin Reaves S 30 21 1 6
Taurean Prince 29 9 3 1
Rui Hachimura S 22 9 4 1
Gabe Vincent 17 3 1 0
Spencer Dinwiddie 14 1 2 0
Jaxson Hayes 6 0 3 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
LeBron James · Layup (2 pts) · 11:20 Q1
"LeBron James makes driving layup"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Anthony Davis LAL
12%
2 Jamal Murray DEN
12%
3 Aaron Gordon DEN
12%
4 Austin Reaves LAL
10%
5 Nikola Jokic DEN
10%
6 LeBron James LAL
10%
7 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope DEN
10%
8 D'Angelo Russell LAL
9%
9 Michael Porter Jr. DEN
8%
10 Rui Hachimura LAL
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
2%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
46%
Jumper
13%
Layup
35%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 LeBron James LAL 29.1 7.4 9.4
2 Nikola Jokic DEN 28.6 13.0 9.2
3 Anthony Davis LAL 25.6 12.5 3.4
4 Jamal Murray DEN 23.6 4.9 6.5
5 Aaron Gordon DEN 16.8 7.6 5.2
6 D'Angelo Russell LAL 16.3 3.4 5.2
7 Austin Reaves LAL 16.0 4.0 3.5
8 Michael Porter Jr. DEN 15.6 7.2 1.8
9 Rui Hachimura LAL 12.7 4.9 1.5
10 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope DEN 10.4 2.7 1.9
11 Christian Braun DEN 9.5 4.0 2.4
12 Taurean Prince LAL 8.0 3.1 1.1
13 Reggie Jackson DEN 7.9 2.1 2.4
14 Peyton Watson DEN 6.4 4.1 1.4
15 Spencer Dinwiddie LAL 5.8 2.2 1.6
16 Christian Wood LAL 5.5 3.2 0.8
17 Justin Holiday DEN 4.5 1.8 1.2
18 Jaxson Hayes LAL 4.0 3.3 0.5
19 Gabe Vincent LAL 3.7 1.7 1.0
20 DeAndre Jordan DEN 2.5 3.0 0.4
21 Zeke Nnaji DEN 2.2 1.8 0.4
22 Julian Strawther DEN 2.2 0.8 0.5
23 Hunter Tyson DEN 2.0 0.6 0.4
24 Max Christie LAL 1.6 0.7 0.3
25 Jalen Pickett DEN 1.4 0.5 0.6
26 Maxwell Lewis LAL 1.1 0.4 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.