NBA games

DEN @ LAL

NBA crypto.com Arena ·Final
112–105
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DEN23263429112
LAL33202230105

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (LAL) / 10 (DEN) games this season
DEN away
home LAL
60% 40%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Aaron Gordon S 41 29 15 3
Nikola Jokic S 39 24 15 9
Jamal Murray S 41 22 5 9
Michael Porter Jr. S 35 20 10 3
Reggie Jackson 7 5 0 1
Christian Braun 17 5 2 1
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope S 35 5 2 1
Peyton Watson 16 2 1 0
Justin Holiday 8 0 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Anthony Davis S 43 33 15 3
LeBron James S 42 26 6 9
Austin Reaves S 41 22 5 3
Spencer Dinwiddie 22 8 2 3
Taurean Prince 20 7 1 2
Rui Hachimura S 28 5 2 1
Gabe Vincent 20 4 4 0
D'Angelo Russell S 24 0 3 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Anthony Davis · Layup (2 pts) · 11:45 Q1
"Anthony Davis makes 2-foot layup (LeBron James assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Aaron Gordon DEN
11%
2 Austin Reaves LAL
11%
3 Rui Hachimura LAL
11%
4 Anthony Davis LAL
10%
5 Jamal Murray DEN
10%
6 LeBron James LAL
9%
7 Nikola Jokic DEN
9%
8 Jarred Vanderbilt LAL
8%
9 Michael Porter Jr. DEN
7%
10 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope DEN
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
11%
Dunk
18%
Free Throw
6%
Jumper
31%
Layup
35%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 LeBron James LAL 29.5 7.3 9.3
2 Nikola Jokic DEN 28.7 13.4 9.8
3 Anthony Davis LAL 25.3 12.4 3.2
4 Jamal Murray DEN 23.6 4.8 6.3
5 D'Angelo Russell LAL 17.8 3.3 5.8
6 Aaron Gordon DEN 15.4 6.6 5.0
7 Michael Porter Jr. DEN 15.4 6.7 1.7
8 Austin Reaves LAL 14.1 4.0 3.7
9 Rui Hachimura LAL 13.0 5.3 1.6
10 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope DEN 11.6 2.7 2.2
11 Jarred Vanderbilt LAL 9.8 5.4 1.9
12 Christian Braun DEN 9.7 4.2 2.4
13 Reggie Jackson DEN 8.9 2.1 2.5
14 Taurean Prince LAL 7.5 3.4 1.2
15 Peyton Watson DEN 6.6 4.2 1.6
16 Spencer Dinwiddie LAL 5.5 2.2 1.4
17 Justin Holiday DEN 4.4 1.7 1.2
18 Jaxson Hayes LAL 4.4 3.5 0.6
19 Collin Gillespie DEN 4.1 1.1 1.3
20 Gabe Vincent LAL 3.1 1.1 1.0
21 DeAndre Jordan DEN 2.6 3.0 0.4
22 Zeke Nnaji DEN 2.2 1.8 0.4
23 Julian Strawther DEN 2.1 0.7 0.5
24 Hunter Tyson DEN 2.0 0.6 0.4
25 Max Christie LAL 1.7 0.7 0.3
26 Braxton Key DEN 1.4 0.8 0.3
27 Jay Huff DEN 1.4 0.8 0.3
28 Jalen Pickett DEN 1.4 0.4 0.6
29 Harry Giles III LAL 1.2 0.7 0.3
30 Colin Castleton LAL 1.1 0.4 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.