NBA games

LAL @ DEN

NBA Ball Arena ·Final
99–101
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
LAL2831202099
DEN24202532101

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (DEN) / 10 (LAL) games this season
LAL away
home DEN
34% 66%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Anthony Davis S 39 32 11 2
LeBron James S 38 26 8 12
D'Angelo Russell S 39 23 3 6
Austin Reaves S 33 9 6 2
Taurean Prince 22 6 3 0
Rui Hachimura S 38 3 5 0
Jaxson Hayes 6 0 1 0
Gabe Vincent 15 0 1 1
Spencer Dinwiddie 10 0 0 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Nikola Jokic S 41 27 20 10
Michael Porter Jr. S 38 22 9 1
Jamal Murray S 40 20 3 5
Aaron Gordon S 40 14 7 3
Christian Braun 13 10 2 0
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope S 35 6 1 3
Peyton Watson 12 2 1 2
Reggie Jackson 9 0 0 1
Justin Holiday 13 0 2 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Michael Porter Jr. · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:41 Q1
"Michael Porter Jr. makes 23-foot three point jumper (Jamal Murray assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Anthony Davis LAL
11%
2 Aaron Gordon DEN
10%
3 Austin Reaves LAL
9%
4 Jamal Murray DEN
9%
5 Nikola Jokic DEN
9%
6 Rui Hachimura LAL
9%
7 Michael Porter Jr. DEN
9%
8 D'Angelo Russell LAL
9%
9 LeBron James LAL
9%
10 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope DEN
8%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
4%
Dunk
9%
Free Throw
9%
Jumper
31%
Layup
47%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Nikola Jokic DEN 29.8 13.3 9.8
2 LeBron James LAL 29.0 7.4 9.6
3 Anthony Davis LAL 24.4 12.4 3.2
4 Jamal Murray DEN 23.7 5.0 6.7
5 D'Angelo Russell LAL 18.1 3.5 5.9
6 Aaron Gordon DEN 16.9 7.0 5.1
7 Michael Porter Jr. DEN 15.6 6.5 1.8
8 Rui Hachimura LAL 15.2 5.8 1.9
9 Austin Reaves LAL 14.5 4.1 3.9
10 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope DEN 11.5 2.8 2.2
11 Reggie Jackson DEN 10.8 2.6 3.5
12 Christian Braun DEN 9.9 4.6 2.5
13 Jarred Vanderbilt LAL 9.8 5.4 1.9
14 Taurean Prince LAL 7.2 3.3 1.2
15 Peyton Watson DEN 6.7 4.3 1.5
16 Spencer Dinwiddie LAL 6.0 2.4 1.6
17 Justin Holiday DEN 5.3 1.7 1.2
18 Jaxson Hayes LAL 5.1 3.6 0.8
19 Collin Gillespie DEN 4.1 1.1 1.4
20 Gabe Vincent LAL 4.0 1.3 1.2
21 DeAndre Jordan DEN 3.4 3.4 0.7
22 Zeke Nnaji DEN 2.3 1.9 0.4
23 Julian Strawther DEN 2.2 0.8 0.5
24 Hunter Tyson DEN 2.0 0.6 0.4
25 Max Christie LAL 1.8 0.8 0.3
26 Braxton Key DEN 1.4 0.8 0.3
27 Jay Huff DEN 1.4 0.8 0.3
28 Jalen Pickett DEN 1.4 0.4 0.6
29 Harry Giles III LAL 1.3 0.8 0.3
30 Maxwell Lewis LAL 1.2 0.5 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.