NBA games

OKC @ NO

NBA Smoothie King Center ·Final
97–89
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
OKC2123262797
NO2122281889

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (NO) / 10 (OKC) games this season
OKC away
home NO
66% 34%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jalen Williams S 38 24 8 4
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander S 40 24 10 3
Chet Holmgren S 35 14 9 5
Josh Giddey S 29 14 3 1
Luguentz Dort S 36 11 8 3
Aaron Wiggins 16 5 2 2
Jaylin Williams 11 3 2 0
Isaiah Joe 14 2 1 0
Cason Wallace 14 0 0 0
Gordon Hayward 4 0 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
CJ McCollum S 37 20 6 2
Jonas Valanciunas S 26 19 13 1
Naji Marshall 22 16 3 1
Herbert Jones S 34 11 4 4
Brandon Ingram S 39 8 4 6
Trey Murphy III S 43 7 11 3
Larry Nance Jr. 21 6 6 1
Jose Alvarado 15 2 2 4
Jordan Hawkins 4 0 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Brandon Ingram · Free Throw (1 pts) · 11:42 Q1
"Brandon Ingram makes free throw 1 of 2"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 CJ McCollum NO
14%
2 Brandon Ingram NO
12%
3 Jalen Williams OKC
11%
4 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC
11%
5 Chet Holmgren OKC
11%
6 Jonas Valanciunas NO
10%
7 Trey Murphy III NO
8%
8 Luguentz Dort OKC
8%
9 Josh Giddey OKC
8%
10 Herbert Jones NO
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
23%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
17%
Jumper
25%
Layup
30%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC 24.0 4.9 5.2
2 CJ McCollum NO 20.6 4.2 5.5
3 Jalen Williams OKC 19.4 5.4 5.5
4 Brandon Ingram NO 17.3 5.2 3.6
5 Trey Murphy III NO 16.0 5.3 2.8
6 Chet Holmgren OKC 15.3 8.1 1.7
7 Josh Giddey OKC 14.5 6.9 5.7
8 Luguentz Dort OKC 11.9 3.2 2.0
9 Herbert Jones NO 11.0 3.9 2.8
10 Aaron Wiggins OKC 9.7 3.0 2.2
11 Jonas Valanciunas NO 9.2 7.6 1.7
12 Larry Nance Jr. NO 8.7 6.1 3.4
13 Jose Alvarado NO 6.9 2.3 2.0
14 Isaiah Joe OKC 6.5 2.5 1.2
15 Cason Wallace OKC 6.2 2.4 2.0
16 Naji Marshall NO 5.9 2.9 1.3
17 Kenrich Williams OKC 5.6 2.4 1.5
18 Gordon Hayward OKC 5.5 2.3 1.0
19 Jaylin Williams OKC 5.4 2.7 1.6
20 Lindy Waters III OKC 5.0 1.4 0.8
21 Dyson Daniels NO 4.4 3.2 1.3
22 Ousmane Dieng OKC 2.8 1.1 1.0
23 Jordan Hawkins NO 2.7 1.2 0.6
24 Matt Ryan NO 2.3 0.9 0.6
25 E.J. Liddell NO 2.1 1.5 0.5
26 Jeremiah Robinson-Earl NO 1.7 1.1 0.3
27 Bismack Biyombo OKC 1.5 1.4 0.2
28 Mike Muscala OKC 1.2 1.1 0.3
29 Cody Zeller NO 1.1 1.5 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.