NBA games

OKC @ NO

NBA Smoothie King Center ·Final
10685
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
OKC23372521106
NO1927231685

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (NO) / 10 (OKC) games this season
OKC away
home NO
70% 30%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander S 37 24 5 8
Josh Giddey S 31 21 8 6
Jalen Williams S 35 21 9 5
Luguentz Dort S 39 12 4 3
Aaron Wiggins 16 6 3 1
Chet Holmgren S 33 6 8 1
Isaiah Joe 9 6 2 0
Jaylin Williams 10 5 2 1
Cason Wallace 18 5 2 1
Gordon Hayward 8 0 4 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Brandon Ingram S 37 19 4 1
CJ McCollum S 35 16 5 7
Herbert Jones S 38 15 7 1
Trey Murphy III S 44 10 6 2
Larry Nance Jr. 29 9 13 5
Jonas Valanciunas S 12 7 4 0
Naji Marshall 21 5 2 0
Dyson Daniels 7 4 1 0
Matt Ryan 3 0 1 0
E.J. Liddell 3 0 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Brandon Ingram · Jumper (2 pts) · 10:59 Q1
"Brandon Ingram makes 12-foot pullup jump shot (CJ McCollum assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Brandon Ingram NO
14%
2 Jalen Williams OKC
11%
3 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC
11%
4 Chet Holmgren OKC
11%
5 Jonas Valanciunas NO
10%
6 CJ McCollum NO
10%
7 Luguentz Dort OKC
8%
8 Josh Giddey OKC
8%
9 Trey Murphy III NO
8%
10 Herbert Jones NO
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
10%
Dunk
10%
Free Throw
27%
Jumper
28%
Layup
25%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC 24.0 5.0 5.3
2 CJ McCollum NO 22.0 4.2 5.2
3 Jalen Williams OKC 19.4 4.7 5.6
4 Chet Holmgren OKC 17.4 7.9 1.9
5 Brandon Ingram NO 17.3 5.3 4.1
6 Trey Murphy III NO 16.4 5.4 2.9
7 Josh Giddey OKC 14.5 7.6 6.2
8 Jonas Valanciunas NO 11.6 8.1 2.5
9 Luguentz Dort OKC 11.3 3.1 1.9
10 Herbert Jones NO 11.0 3.7 2.9
11 Aaron Wiggins OKC 10.7 3.3 2.2
12 Larry Nance Jr. NO 8.1 5.6 2.9
13 Jose Alvarado NO 7.5 2.5 2.2
14 Isaiah Joe OKC 7.4 2.8 1.7
15 Cason Wallace OKC 6.2 2.5 2.0
16 Jaylin Williams OKC 5.9 3.0 2.6
17 Kenrich Williams OKC 5.9 2.5 1.5
18 Naji Marshall NO 5.9 3.0 1.4
19 Gordon Hayward OKC 5.6 2.1 1.2
20 Lindy Waters III OKC 5.0 1.7 0.9
21 Dyson Daniels NO 5.0 3.5 1.6
22 Ousmane Dieng OKC 3.7 1.5 1.3
23 Jordan Hawkins NO 2.9 1.3 0.7
24 E.J. Liddell NO 2.7 1.4 0.6
25 Bismack Biyombo OKC 1.5 1.4 0.3
26 Mike Muscala OKC 1.2 1.1 0.3
27 Cody Zeller NO 1.2 1.5 0.4
28 Matt Ryan NO 1.1 0.5 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.