NBA games

NO @ OKC

NBA Paycom Center ·Final
92–124
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
NO2228241892
OKC35282932124

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (OKC) / 10 (NO) games this season
NO away
home OKC
27% 73%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jonas Valanciunas S 23 19 7 2
Herbert Jones S 36 18 2 1
Brandon Ingram S 33 18 4 3
CJ McCollum S 36 15 5 4
Naji Marshall 25 10 2 0
Trey Murphy III S 38 8 5 2
Jeremiah Robinson-Earl 5 2 1 1
Larry Nance Jr. 14 2 6 1
Jose Alvarado 17 0 1 2
Dyson Daniels 8 0 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander S 35 33 3 5
Chet Holmgren S 29 26 7 1
Jalen Williams S 35 21 5 7
Luguentz Dort S 31 15 1 2
Josh Giddey S 26 13 6 3
Isaiah Joe 17 8 2 1
Aaron Wiggins 12 6 5 2
Cason Wallace 19 2 3 3
Kenrich Williams 3 0 1 0
Lindy Waters III 3 0 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jonas Valanciunas · Layup (2 pts) · 11:36 Q1
"Jonas Valanciunas makes two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC
14%
2 Brandon Ingram NO
13%
3 Chet Holmgren OKC
11%
4 Jalen Williams OKC
11%
5 Jonas Valanciunas NO
10%
6 Josh Giddey OKC
10%
7 Luguentz Dort OKC
8%
8 CJ McCollum NO
8%
9 Herbert Jones NO
7%
10 Trey Murphy III NO
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
4%
Dunk
7%
Free Throw
22%
Jumper
27%
Layup
39%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC 24.2 5.1 5.6
2 CJ McCollum NO 22.5 4.5 5.2
3 Jalen Williams OKC 19.4 4.4 5.2
4 Trey Murphy III NO 16.2 5.6 2.8
5 Brandon Ingram NO 16.0 5.8 4.7
6 Chet Holmgren OKC 15.1 8.0 1.8
7 Josh Giddey OKC 15.1 7.7 7.0
8 Luguentz Dort OKC 11.1 3.0 2.0
9 Jonas Valanciunas NO 10.5 7.9 2.2
10 Aaron Wiggins OKC 10.4 3.1 2.3
11 Herbert Jones NO 10.1 3.5 2.8
12 Larry Nance Jr. NO 8.4 5.2 2.9
13 Jose Alvarado NO 8.2 2.9 2.3
14 Isaiah Joe OKC 6.9 2.7 1.8
15 Gordon Hayward OKC 6.3 2.1 1.2
16 Kenrich Williams OKC 6.2 2.6 1.7
17 Cason Wallace OKC 6.0 2.2 1.7
18 Jaylin Williams OKC 5.8 3.4 2.7
19 Naji Marshall NO 5.7 3.5 1.5
20 Dyson Daniels NO 5.6 3.6 1.7
21 Lindy Waters III OKC 3.6 1.1 0.7
22 Ousmane Dieng OKC 2.9 0.8 1.3
23 E.J. Liddell NO 2.8 1.5 0.6
24 Jordan Hawkins NO 1.8 0.7 0.4
25 Jeremiah Robinson-Earl NO 1.7 1.1 0.5
26 Bismack Biyombo OKC 1.5 1.4 0.3
27 Matt Ryan NO 1.4 0.5 0.3
28 Cody Zeller NO 1.3 1.6 0.4
29 Mike Muscala OKC 1.2 1.0 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.