NBA games

DAL @ LAC

NBA crypto.com Arena ·Final
97–109
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DAL228343397
LAC34223122109

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (LAC) / 10 (DAL) games this season
DAL away
home LAC
47% 53%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Luka Doncic S 42 33 13 6
Kyrie Irving S 39 31 7 4
P.J. Washington S 37 11 7 0
Tim Hardaway Jr. 16 6 3 0
Josh Green 9 4 1 1
Maxi Kleber 27 3 3 3
Dereck Lively II 19 3 4 0
Dante Exum 16 3 2 0
Daniel Gafford S 14 3 0 0
Derrick Jones Jr. S 18 0 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
James Harden S 39 28 2 8
Paul George S 38 22 6 3
Ivica Zubac S 33 20 15 1
Terance Mann S 39 13 9 2
Russell Westbrook 23 13 4 4
Amir Coffey S 25 6 3 1
Norman Powell 30 5 1 1
Mason Plumlee 13 2 5 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Amir Coffey · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:20 Q1
"Amir Coffey makes 24-foot three point jumper (Terance Mann assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Ivica Zubac LAC
8%
2 Daniel Gafford DAL
7%
3 Paul George LAC
7%
4 Kyrie Irving DAL
6%
5 James Harden LAC
6%
6 Mason Plumlee LAC
6%
7 Amir Coffey LAC
6%
8 Luka Doncic DAL
6%
9 Terance Mann LAC
5%
10 Olivier-Maxence Prosper DAL
5%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
2%
Dunk
22%
Free Throw
19%
Jumper
22%
Layup
35%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Luka Doncic DAL 29.0 10.7 9.3
2 Kyrie Irving DAL 24.2 4.3 4.7
3 Paul George LAC 21.9 4.9 3.6
4 James Harden LAC 13.4 4.7 7.8
5 P.J. Washington DAL 13.0 6.6 1.8
6 Ivica Zubac LAC 12.2 10.1 1.4
7 Norman Powell LAC 11.6 2.6 1.3
8 Russell Westbrook LAC 11.2 4.8 4.6
9 Daniel Gafford DAL 8.9 6.0 1.4
10 Amir Coffey LAC 8.8 3.2 1.1
11 Terance Mann LAC 8.7 3.4 1.2
12 Brandon Boston LAC 7.2 2.9 1.0
13 Dereck Lively II DAL 6.9 5.9 0.7
14 Derrick Jones Jr. DAL 6.8 3.1 1.2
15 Tim Hardaway Jr. DAL 6.5 2.2 1.4
16 Bones Hyland LAC 6.3 2.2 2.3
17 Dante Exum DAL 5.7 2.8 2.3
18 Josh Green DAL 5.0 2.5 1.1
19 Jaden Hardy DAL 4.7 1.9 0.9
20 Daniel Theis LAC 4.7 4.0 0.7
21 Maxi Kleber DAL 4.1 3.1 1.0
22 Mason Plumlee LAC 3.5 4.3 0.9
23 Olivier-Maxence Prosper DAL 2.9 1.4 0.4
24 P.J. Tucker LAC 2.4 1.9 0.5
25 Markieff Morris DAL 2.3 0.9 0.4
26 Kobe Brown LAC 2.2 1.5 0.5
27 A.J. Lawson DAL 2.0 1.2 0.4
28 Dwight Powell DAL 1.4 2.1 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.