NBA games

NO @ OKC

NBA Paycom Center ·Final
9294
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
NO1726252492
OKC1726312094

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (OKC) / 10 (NO) games this season
NO away
home OKC
9% 91%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Trey Murphy III S 44 21 4 2
CJ McCollum S 39 20 3 6
Jonas Valanciunas S 29 13 20 2
Brandon Ingram S 37 12 6 3
Larry Nance Jr. 19 8 8 0
Herbert Jones S 33 8 7 4
Jose Alvarado 19 5 0 1
Naji Marshall 16 5 4 4
Dyson Daniels 3 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander S 39 28 6 4
Jalen Williams S 40 19 7 4
Chet Holmgren S 32 15 11 2
Jaylin Williams 7 6 2 2
Aaron Wiggins 16 6 3 2
Luguentz Dort S 35 6 4 1
Cason Wallace 19 5 1 1
Isaiah Joe 15 5 2 1
Kenrich Williams 9 2 3 0
Josh Giddey S 20 2 3 3

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Chet Holmgren · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:07 Q1
"Chet Holmgren makes 26-foot three point jumper (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Josh Giddey OKC
13%
2 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC
12%
3 Brandon Ingram NO
11%
4 Chet Holmgren OKC
11%
5 Jalen Williams OKC
11%
6 CJ McCollum NO
10%
7 Jonas Valanciunas NO
10%
8 Luguentz Dort OKC
8%
9 Herbert Jones NO
7%
10 Trey Murphy III NO
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
12%
Dunk
11%
Free Throw
24%
Jumper
23%
Layup
29%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC 23.2 5.0 5.1
2 CJ McCollum NO 22.3 4.7 5.3
3 Jalen Williams OKC 19.3 4.2 4.8
4 Josh Giddey OKC 18.1 8.1 7.0
5 Brandon Ingram NO 17.1 5.6 4.8
6 Trey Murphy III NO 17.1 5.5 3.2
7 Chet Holmgren OKC 15.6 7.2 1.7
8 Luguentz Dort OKC 11.6 2.9 1.8
9 Aaron Wiggins OKC 11.2 3.3 2.0
10 Herbert Jones NO 10.3 3.0 2.8
11 Jonas Valanciunas NO 10.3 6.8 2.1
12 Jose Alvarado NO 9.2 3.3 2.9
13 Larry Nance Jr. NO 8.5 5.2 3.2
14 Isaiah Joe OKC 6.9 2.5 1.5
15 Dyson Daniels NO 6.6 4.2 2.3
16 Naji Marshall NO 6.5 3.6 1.4
17 Cason Wallace OKC 5.9 2.3 1.6
18 Kenrich Williams OKC 5.7 2.4 1.4
19 Gordon Hayward OKC 5.4 1.6 1.0
20 Jaylin Williams OKC 5.1 3.2 2.7
21 Lindy Waters III OKC 3.8 1.3 0.7
22 Ousmane Dieng OKC 3.1 1.0 1.3
23 E.J. Liddell NO 2.8 1.4 0.6
24 Keyontae Johnson OKC 2.4 1.3 0.7
25 Jeremiah Robinson-Earl NO 1.8 1.1 0.5
26 Jordan Hawkins NO 1.8 0.7 0.4
27 Olivier Sarr OKC 1.7 1.2 0.3
28 Bismack Biyombo OKC 1.7 1.6 0.3
29 Matt Ryan NO 1.4 0.5 0.3
30 Mike Muscala OKC 1.4 1.2 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.