NBA games

IND @ MIL

NBA Fiserv Forum ·Final
94–109
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
IND2121292394
MIL30391426109

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MIL) / 10 (IND) games this season
IND away
home MIL
68% 32%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Pascal Siakam S 40 36 13 2
Myles Turner S 33 17 8 2
T.J. McConnell 18 10 2 1
Tyrese Haliburton S 38 9 7 8
Aaron Nesmith S 37 7 4 3
Andrew Nembhard S 30 6 0 3
Obi Toppin 13 4 5 0
Ben Sheppard 9 3 4 1
Jalen Smith 13 2 7 0
Isaiah Jackson 2 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Damian Lillard S 38 35 6 3
Khris Middleton S 35 23 10 4
Bobby Portis S 31 15 11 1
Brook Lopez S 32 11 4 3
Malik Beasley 29 9 4 0
Pat Connaughton 22 6 2 1
Patrick Beverley S 37 5 7 8
Jae Crowder 12 5 3 1
AJ Green 6 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Pascal Siakam · Jumper (2 pts) · 10:25 Q1
"Pascal Siakam makes 16-foot pullup jump shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Damian Lillard MIL
15%
2 Pascal Siakam IND
13%
3 Myles Turner IND
11%
4 Khris Middleton MIL
11%
5 Bobby Portis MIL
10%
6 Brook Lopez MIL
9%
7 Tyrese Haliburton IND
9%
8 Andrew Nembhard IND
8%
9 Aaron Nesmith IND
7%
10 Patrick Beverley MIL
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
22%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
18%
Jumper
38%
Layup
17%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Damian Lillard MIL 24.8 4.4 6.3
2 Pascal Siakam IND 21.0 7.0 2.8
3 Tyrese Haliburton IND 19.1 4.1 8.7
4 Khris Middleton MIL 17.9 6.2 6.0
5 Myles Turner IND 16.4 6.3 1.7
6 T.J. McConnell IND 15.6 3.2 5.4
7 Bobby Portis MIL 15.6 8.0 2.0
8 Brook Lopez MIL 12.8 4.3 1.3
9 Aaron Nesmith IND 10.9 3.9 1.6
10 Andrew Nembhard IND 9.3 2.3 2.9
11 Obi Toppin IND 9.1 3.8 1.5
12 Malik Beasley MIL 8.8 2.4 1.2
13 Patrick Beverley MIL 7.1 3.8 2.5
14 Jalen Smith IND 6.5 4.9 0.8
15 Pat Connaughton MIL 6.1 2.7 2.2
16 Jae Crowder MIL 5.2 2.4 0.9
17 Ben Sheppard IND 4.9 1.8 1.1
18 AJ Green MIL 3.7 1.1 0.5
19 Doug McDermott IND 3.4 0.7 0.6
20 Isaiah Jackson IND 3.3 3.3 0.6
21 Danilo Gallinari MIL 2.9 0.9 0.5
22 Jarace Walker IND 2.7 1.6 0.8
23 MarJon Beauchamp MIL 2.6 0.9 0.4
24 Andre Jackson Jr. MIL 1.9 1.6 0.5
25 Thanasis Antetokounmpo MIL 1.7 0.8 0.4
26 Chris Livingston MIL 1.7 0.9 0.4
27 James Johnson IND 1.3 0.7 0.5
28 Kendall Brown IND 1.3 0.6 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.