NBA games

MIA @ BOS

NBA TD Garden ·Final
94–114
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MIA2124143594
BOS26343123114

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (BOS) / 10 (MIA) games this season
MIA away
home BOS
26% 74%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Bam Adebayo S 36 24 6 3
Delon Wright 26 17 1 3
Jaime Jaquez Jr. S 36 16 4 4
Tyler Herro S 34 11 4 4
Nikola Jovic S 26 10 6 0
Kevin Love 13 7 4 2
Duncan Robinson 15 5 2 2
Caleb Martin S 29 4 4 2
Haywood Highsmith 26 0 3 3
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jayson Tatum S 41 23 10 10
Derrick White S 33 20 3 4
Kristaps Porzingis S 34 18 4 1
Jaylen Brown S 34 17 8 3
Sam Hauser 14 12 1 1
Al Horford 26 10 7 0
Payton Pritchard 24 8 4 5
Jrue Holiday S 33 6 7 3

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jaylen Brown · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:39 Q1
"Jaylen Brown makes 26-foot three point jumper (Jayson Tatum assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Tyler Herro MIA
11%
2 Jaylen Brown BOS
8%
3 Bam Adebayo MIA
8%
4 Kristaps Porzingis BOS
7%
5 Jimmy Butler III MIA
7%
6 Payton Pritchard BOS
7%
7 Jayson Tatum BOS
7%
8 Jrue Holiday BOS
6%
9 Derrick White BOS
5%
10 Jaime Jaquez Jr. MIA
5%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
23%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
23%
Jumper
31%
Layup
19%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jayson Tatum BOS 24.0 6.7 5.0
2 Tyler Herro MIA 21.9 5.4 5.9
3 Jaylen Brown BOS 21.1 5.3 3.1
4 Jimmy Butler III MIA 19.4 4.9 5.3
5 Kristaps Porzingis BOS 16.9 7.5 2.4
6 Terry Rozier MIA 16.2 3.2 3.1
7 Payton Pritchard BOS 15.4 3.4 5.2
8 Bam Adebayo MIA 15.2 8.2 3.0
9 Derrick White BOS 13.7 3.9 5.2
10 Jaime Jaquez Jr. MIA 10.7 3.8 2.6
11 Caleb Martin MIA 9.9 3.7 2.4
12 Al Horford BOS 9.8 4.8 1.6
13 Nikola Jovic MIA 9.6 4.5 1.7
14 Sam Hauser BOS 9.6 3.4 1.6
15 Duncan Robinson MIA 9.3 3.1 1.9
16 Jrue Holiday BOS 9.2 4.1 3.8
17 Josh Richardson MIA 8.8 3.2 1.7
18 Haywood Highsmith MIA 8.7 5.5 1.5
19 Thomas Bryant MIA 8.0 5.5 0.8
20 Kevin Love MIA 7.7 5.1 1.2
21 Delon Wright MIA 6.9 2.8 2.1
22 Patty Mills MIA 5.4 1.5 1.3
23 Neemias Queta BOS 4.6 3.9 0.7
24 Svi Mykhailiuk BOS 4.3 1.1 1.0
25 Xavier Tillman BOS 3.1 1.7 0.7
26 Oshae Brissett BOS 2.7 2.3 0.6
27 Orlando Robinson MIA 2.4 1.3 0.6
28 Jaden Springer BOS 2.1 1.3 0.5
29 Jordan Walsh BOS 1.5 1.5 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.