NBA games

PHX @ MIN

NBA Target Center ·Final
95–120
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
PHX2823212395
MIN27343128120

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MIN) / 10 (PHX) games this season
PHX away
home MIN
33% 67%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kevin Durant S 39 31 7 1
Devin Booker S 38 18 2 5
Bradley Beal S 37 15 2 6
Royce O'Neale 26 14 4 0
Jusuf Nurkic S 27 9 4 1
Grayson Allen S 25 4 5 2
Nassir Little 4 2 0 0
Josh Okogie 4 2 0 0
Thaddeus Young 4 0 0 0
Bol Bol 4 0 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Anthony Edwards S 36 33 9 6
Karl-Anthony Towns S 27 19 7 4
Nickeil Alexander-Walker 29 18 4 2
Rudy Gobert S 37 14 16 2
Naz Reid 19 12 2 2
Jaden McDaniels S 38 9 6 0
Luka Garza 3 5 1 0
Mike Conley S 27 4 3 7
Monte Morris 10 2 3 3
Jordan McLaughlin 3 2 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jaden McDaniels · Layup (2 pts) · 11:27 Q1
"Jaden McDaniels makes two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Anthony Edwards MIN
13%
2 Kevin Durant PHX
13%
3 Rudy Gobert MIN
12%
4 Karl-Anthony Towns MIN
10%
5 Jusuf Nurkic PHX
9%
6 Bradley Beal PHX
9%
7 Devin Booker PHX
8%
8 Grayson Allen PHX
8%
9 Jaden McDaniels MIN
8%
10 Mike Conley MIN
8%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
13%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
14%
Jumper
50%
Layup
19%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Devin Booker PHX 25.4 3.3 7.3
2 Anthony Edwards MIN 24.5 4.9 5.3
3 Kevin Durant PHX 23.5 5.9 3.8
4 Karl-Anthony Towns MIN 22.3 7.6 4.0
5 Bradley Beal PHX 20.1 5.5 4.8
6 Rudy Gobert MIN 15.2 11.4 1.9
7 Naz Reid MIN 15.0 5.8 2.0
8 Mike Conley MIN 14.8 3.0 5.3
9 Grayson Allen PHX 12.3 4.5 2.3
10 Jaden McDaniels MIN 9.4 3.1 1.6
11 Jusuf Nurkic PHX 8.3 9.6 4.9
12 Nickeil Alexander-Walker MIN 8.2 2.1 1.7
13 Royce O'Neale PHX 6.6 4.0 1.7
14 Kyle Anderson MIN 5.3 2.3 3.0
15 Eric Gordon PHX 4.9 1.3 1.0
16 Jordan McLaughlin MIN 4.0 1.2 2.0
17 Luka Garza MIN 3.9 1.2 0.4
18 Monte Morris MIN 3.9 1.8 1.0
19 Drew Eubanks PHX 2.9 3.8 0.7
20 Bol Bol PHX 2.7 2.1 0.4
21 T.J. Warren MIN 2.3 1.4 0.6
22 Josh Okogie PHX 2.2 1.2 0.6
23 Thaddeus Young PHX 2.1 2.4 0.5
24 Josh Minott MIN 1.9 0.8 0.4
25 Nassir Little PHX 1.8 0.5 0.3
26 Isaiah Thomas PHX 1.6 0.5 0.4
27 Leonard Miller MIN 1.6 0.8 0.4
28 David Roddy PHX 1.4 0.9 0.4
29 Wendell Moore Jr. MIN 1.4 0.7 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.