NBA games

LAL @ DEN

NBA Ball Arena ·Final
103–114
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
LAL33271825103
DEN25323225114

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (DEN) / 10 (LAL) games this season
LAL away
home DEN
30% 70%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Anthony Davis S 45 32 14 5
LeBron James S 41 27 6 8
Austin Reaves S 37 13 4 3
D'Angelo Russell S 41 13 3 3
Taurean Prince 20 11 4 0
Rui Hachimura S 31 7 3 1
Gabe Vincent 8 0 1 1
Jaxson Hayes 4 0 3 0
Spencer Dinwiddie 13 0 2 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Nikola Jokic S 39 32 12 7
Jamal Murray S 39 22 6 10
Michael Porter Jr. S 38 19 8 0
Aaron Gordon S 32 12 11 7
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope S 37 12 2 1
Peyton Watson 14 8 1 0
DeAndre Jordan 9 4 2 0
Reggie Jackson 9 3 1 2
Christian Braun 18 2 5 0
Justin Holiday 6 0 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jamal Murray DEN
12%
2 Anthony Davis LAL
12%
3 Aaron Gordon DEN
11%
4 Nikola Jokic DEN
9%
5 Michael Porter Jr. DEN
9%
6 Rui Hachimura LAL
9%
7 Austin Reaves LAL
9%
8 LeBron James LAL
8%
9 Jarred Vanderbilt LAL
8%
10 D'Angelo Russell LAL
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
28%
Dunk
7%
Free Throw
13%
Jumper
22%
Layup
30%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 LeBron James LAL 29.4 8.1 9.4
2 Nikola Jokic DEN 28.9 12.4 9.1
3 Anthony Davis LAL 24.9 12.7 2.9
4 Jamal Murray DEN 22.0 4.7 6.1
5 D'Angelo Russell LAL 17.9 3.5 6.0
6 Aaron Gordon DEN 15.9 6.4 5.0
7 Michael Porter Jr. DEN 15.6 6.5 1.7
8 Austin Reaves LAL 15.4 4.6 4.5
9 Rui Hachimura LAL 15.0 5.5 1.8
10 Reggie Jackson DEN 11.4 2.5 3.4
11 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope DEN 11.1 3.1 2.3
12 Jarred Vanderbilt LAL 9.8 5.4 1.9
13 Christian Braun DEN 9.1 4.1 2.3
14 Taurean Prince LAL 6.1 2.8 1.0
15 Spencer Dinwiddie LAL 5.6 2.0 1.3
16 Peyton Watson DEN 5.6 4.2 1.1
17 Jaxson Hayes LAL 4.9 3.7 0.7
18 Justin Holiday DEN 4.4 1.2 0.9
19 Gabe Vincent LAL 3.9 1.0 1.1
20 DeAndre Jordan DEN 2.5 2.8 0.5
21 Zeke Nnaji DEN 2.4 2.0 0.4
22 Julian Strawther DEN 2.3 0.9 0.5
23 Hunter Tyson DEN 2.1 0.7 0.4
24 Max Christie LAL 2.0 0.9 0.3
25 Maxwell Lewis LAL 1.4 0.5 0.3
26 Jalen Pickett DEN 1.4 0.4 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.