NBA games

ORL @ CLE

NBA Rocket Arena ·Final
83–97
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
ORL2615172583
CLE3320202497

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (CLE) / 10 (ORL) games this season
ORL away
home CLE
56% 44%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Paolo Banchero S 41 24 7 5
Franz Wagner S 38 18 7 3
Jalen Suggs S 33 13 4 4
Jonathan Isaac S 29 10 5 1
Moritz Wagner 13 10 5 0
Cole Anthony 11 4 1 0
Wendell Carter Jr. 15 3 2 0
Joe Ingles 15 1 4 2
Gary Harris S 33 0 2 0
Markelle Fultz 13 0 3 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Donovan Mitchell S 36 30 2 3
Jarrett Allen S 35 16 18 2
Evan Mobley S 36 16 11 2
Darius Garland S 32 14 3 8
Max Strus S 33 7 9 1
Caris LeVert 20 5 4 2
Georges Niang 25 5 3 2
Isaac Okoro 19 4 2 0
Sam Merrill 4 0 2 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Max Strus · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:41 Q1
"Max Strus makes 26-foot three point jumper (Evan Mobley assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jarrett Allen CLE
14%
2 Franz Wagner ORL
12%
3 Paolo Banchero ORL
11%
4 Jalen Suggs ORL
10%
5 Evan Mobley CLE
9%
6 Darius Garland CLE
9%
7 Donovan Mitchell CLE
8%
8 Max Strus CLE
7%
9 Jonathan Isaac ORL
6%
10 Isaac Okoro CLE
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
1%
Dunk
25%
Free Throw
28%
Jumper
22%
Layup
24%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Paolo Banchero ORL 24.7 7.6 6.1
2 Donovan Mitchell CLE 20.1 4.0 5.2
3 Franz Wagner ORL 19.1 4.8 2.9
4 Jarrett Allen CLE 18.3 9.4 2.9
5 Darius Garland CLE 17.3 3.6 7.3
6 Evan Mobley CLE 16.8 6.7 3.1
7 Jalen Suggs ORL 15.4 3.3 3.4
8 Caris LeVert CLE 14.3 4.6 3.6
9 Max Strus CLE 12.5 4.8 4.8
10 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL 9.9 6.0 1.6
11 Moritz Wagner ORL 8.2 3.6 0.9
12 Cole Anthony ORL 8.1 2.4 1.7
13 Markelle Fultz ORL 7.9 3.0 1.7
14 Isaac Okoro CLE 7.6 2.0 1.2
15 Georges Niang CLE 7.5 2.2 0.9
16 Jonathan Isaac ORL 6.7 5.2 0.9
17 Gary Harris ORL 6.7 1.9 1.4
18 Joe Ingles ORL 5.3 1.6 2.7
19 Sam Merrill CLE 5.3 1.6 1.6
20 Marcus Morris Sr. CLE 4.3 1.5 0.7
21 Caleb Houstan ORL 3.5 0.9 0.4
22 Damian Jones CLE 2.8 1.3 0.3
23 Anthony Black ORL 2.6 1.0 0.5
24 Goga Bitadze ORL 2.2 1.5 0.5
25 Jett Howard ORL 2.1 0.8 0.5
26 Tristan Thompson CLE 1.8 1.6 0.5
27 Chuma Okeke ORL 1.6 0.9 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.