NBA games

PHI @ NY

NBA Madison Square Garden ·Final
104–111
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
PHI34123622104
NY25332132111

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (NY) / 10 (PHI) games this season
PHI away
home NY
26% 74%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Tyrese Maxey S 44 33 2 4
Joel Embiid S 37 29 8 6
Kyle Lowry S 39 18 4 2
Kelly Oubre Jr. S 39 10 3 1
Tobias Harris S 31 7 9 2
Paul Reed 11 4 5 0
Nicolas Batum 26 3 2 1
Buddy Hield 11 0 0 1
Cameron Payne 3 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jalen Brunson S 41 22 7 7
Josh Hart S 42 22 13 2
Miles McBride 28 21 3 4
Bojan Bogdanovic 25 13 7 1
OG Anunoby S 31 11 4 0
Mitchell Robinson 30 8 12 1
Donte DiVincenzo S 24 8 2 2
Isaiah Hartenstein S 18 6 7 3

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Josh Hart · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:31 Q1
"Josh Hart makes 25-foot three point jumper (Donte DiVincenzo assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jericho Sims NY
17%
2 Tyrese Maxey PHI
12%
3 Kelly Oubre Jr. PHI
9%
4 Tobias Harris PHI
9%
5 Isaiah Hartenstein NY
9%
6 OG Anunoby NY
7%
7 Josh Hart NY
7%
8 Donte DiVincenzo NY
7%
9 Mo Bamba PHI
7%
10 Joel Embiid PHI
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
3%
Dunk
74%
Free Throw
3%
Jumper
10%
Layup
10%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Joel Embiid PHI 29.6 10.2 5.4
2 Jalen Brunson NY 29.5 3.6 10.1
3 Tyrese Maxey PHI 24.7 3.8 6.2
4 Tobias Harris PHI 18.0 7.5 2.8
5 Kelly Oubre Jr. PHI 17.6 6.2 2.1
6 Donte DiVincenzo NY 15.9 4.1 3.3
7 Josh Hart NY 13.5 10.0 5.3
8 OG Anunoby NY 12.4 4.2 2.0
9 Miles McBride NY 12.2 3.0 2.7
10 Isaiah Hartenstein NY 11.6 7.9 3.7
11 Kyle Lowry PHI 8.9 2.7 3.7
12 Buddy Hield PHI 8.9 3.0 1.8
13 Nicolas Batum PHI 8.6 4.2 2.0
14 Paul Reed PHI 8.4 6.1 1.4
15 Bojan Bogdanovic NY 7.4 1.8 0.7
16 Cameron Payne PHI 6.5 2.3 2.5
17 Mo Bamba PHI 4.7 5.1 0.6
18 Precious Achiuwa NY 4.3 4.5 0.5
19 KJ Martin PHI 4.1 2.7 0.9
20 Mitchell Robinson NY 3.5 4.3 0.4
21 Alec Burks NY 3.5 1.4 0.7
22 Ricky Council IV PHI 3.4 0.9 0.7
23 Jeff Dowtin Jr. PHI 3.2 1.2 1.3
24 Mamadi Diakite NY 3.0 1.6 0.3
25 Shake Milton NY 2.5 1.7 0.7
26 Jericho Sims NY 1.6 2.6 0.3
27 DaQuan Jeffries NY 1.0 0.4 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.