NBA games

SAC @ NO

NBA Smoothie King Center ·Final
98–105
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
SAC2421292498
NO22322922105

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (NO) / 10 (SAC) games this season
SAC away
home NO
42% 58%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
De'Aaron Fox S 42 35 7 5
Domantas Sabonis S 42 23 14 7
Harrison Barnes S 38 17 5 4
Keegan Murray S 38 11 7 3
Davion Mitchell 24 10 2 1
Sasha Vezenkov 11 2 2 0
Trey Lyles 13 0 3 0
Keon Ellis S 28 0 0 1
Alex Len 4 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Brandon Ingram S 37 24 6 6
Jonas Valanciunas S 27 19 12 3
Trey Murphy III S 43 16 8 6
Larry Nance Jr. 21 13 4 3
Naji Marshall 24 11 6 2
Jose Alvarado 24 10 5 2
CJ McCollum S 36 7 2 3
Herbert Jones S 26 5 1 4
Dyson Daniels 2 0 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Domantas Sabonis · Free Throw (1 pts) · 11:10 Q1
"Domantas Sabonis makes free throw 1 of 2"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Domantas Sabonis SAC
17%
2 Brandon Ingram NO
16%
3 De'Aaron Fox SAC
13%
4 Jonas Valanciunas NO
11%
5 Keegan Murray SAC
10%
6 Herbert Jones NO
9%
7 CJ McCollum NO
8%
8 Harrison Barnes SAC
8%
9 Keon Ellis SAC
8%
10 Trey Lyles SAC
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
4%
Dunk
6%
Free Throw
27%
Jumper
39%
Layup
24%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 De'Aaron Fox SAC 25.1 4.8 6.2
2 CJ McCollum NO 22.3 4.8 5.7
3 Domantas Sabonis SAC 19.4 12.4 7.3
4 Keegan Murray SAC 16.8 5.8 2.0
5 Trey Murphy III NO 16.2 5.8 2.7
6 Brandon Ingram NO 15.2 5.3 4.5
7 Harrison Barnes SAC 11.8 3.6 1.8
8 Herbert Jones NO 11.0 3.2 2.6
9 Keon Ellis SAC 10.8 4.0 2.4
10 Davion Mitchell SAC 9.6 2.9 2.9
11 Jonas Valanciunas NO 8.3 5.8 2.0
12 Jose Alvarado NO 8.2 2.9 2.7
13 Trey Lyles SAC 7.6 4.1 1.7
14 Larry Nance Jr. NO 7.6 4.9 2.8
15 Dyson Daniels NO 7.1 4.5 2.3
16 Naji Marshall NO 4.7 2.7 1.1
17 Sasha Vezenkov SAC 4.0 1.5 0.7
18 Kessler Edwards SAC 3.2 1.3 0.7
19 Colby Jones SAC 3.0 1.9 0.9
20 E.J. Liddell NO 2.7 1.4 0.6
21 Alex Len SAC 2.5 2.6 1.2
22 JaVale McGee SAC 2.5 1.8 0.6
23 Chris Duarte SAC 2.2 0.9 0.4
24 Jeremiah Robinson-Earl NO 2.0 1.2 0.5
25 Jordan Hawkins NO 1.6 0.7 0.4
26 Matt Ryan NO 1.5 0.5 0.4
27 Cody Zeller NO 1.5 1.6 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.