NBA games

CHI @ MIA

NBA Kaseya Center ·Final
91–112
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
CHI1720233191
MIA34133530112

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MIA) / 10 (CHI) games this season
CHI away
home MIA
33% 67%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
DeMar DeRozan S 41 22 3 4
Nikola Vucevic S 35 16 14 5
Coby White S 36 13 2 4
Javonte Green 17 12 3 3
Ayo Dosunmu S 41 10 4 4
Alex Caruso S 33 6 3 4
Torrey Craig 11 6 3 1
Andre Drummond 8 2 4 0
Dalen Terry 13 2 1 1
Jevon Carter 4 2 1 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Tyler Herro S 33 24 10 9
Jaime Jaquez Jr. S 35 21 6 6
Kevin Love 12 16 7 1
Bam Adebayo S 32 13 4 4
Haywood Highsmith 31 9 3 0
Duncan Robinson 12 8 3 1
Caleb Martin S 25 7 4 1
Nikola Jovic S 27 5 6 2
Delon Wright 23 5 1 0
Thomas Bryant 4 4 3 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Nikola Vucevic · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:36 Q1
"Nikola Vucevic makes 16-foot jumper (Alex Caruso assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 DeMar DeRozan CHI
10%
2 Bam Adebayo MIA
10%
3 Jimmy Butler III MIA
9%
4 Nikola Vucevic CHI
9%
5 Ayo Dosunmu CHI
9%
6 Coby White CHI
9%
7 Duncan Robinson MIA
7%
8 Terry Rozier MIA
6%
9 Tyler Herro MIA
6%
10 Nikola Jovic MIA
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
3%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
64%
Jumper
12%
Layup
18%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 DeMar DeRozan CHI 27.7 4.5 6.0
2 Tyler Herro MIA 22.5 4.8 5.8
3 Coby White CHI 21.1 3.8 4.7
4 Jimmy Butler III MIA 20.2 4.9 5.7
5 Nikola Vucevic CHI 19.8 9.9 3.3
6 Ayo Dosunmu CHI 18.6 3.4 3.9
7 Terry Rozier MIA 17.2 3.2 3.2
8 Bam Adebayo MIA 17.1 8.9 3.5
9 Javonte Green CHI 11.7 7.0 1.3
10 Nikola Jovic MIA 11.0 4.6 1.9
11 Alex Caruso CHI 10.8 4.1 5.3
12 Patrick Williams CHI 9.9 3.2 1.9
13 Caleb Martin MIA 9.9 3.4 2.7
14 Jaime Jaquez Jr. MIA 9.6 3.2 2.6
15 Duncan Robinson MIA 9.3 2.6 1.8
16 Haywood Highsmith MIA 9.3 5.4 1.6
17 Josh Richardson MIA 9.2 3.1 1.8
18 Thomas Bryant MIA 7.8 5.3 0.7
19 Andre Drummond CHI 7.7 9.1 0.7
20 Kevin Love MIA 7.6 4.4 1.3
21 Delon Wright MIA 6.6 2.6 2.4
22 Dalen Terry CHI 5.7 3.1 1.2
23 Jevon Carter CHI 4.9 1.4 1.6
24 Patty Mills MIA 4.9 1.0 1.3
25 Torrey Craig CHI 4.3 3.2 0.7
26 Julian Phillips CHI 4.2 1.6 0.6
27 Orlando Robinson MIA 1.6 0.9 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.