NBA games

MIA @ PHI

NBA Xfinity Mobile Arena ·Final
104–105
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MIA23282330104
PHI22173036105

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (PHI) / 10 (MIA) games this season
MIA away
home PHI
45% 55%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Tyler Herro S 41 25 2 9
Jimmy Butler III S 40 19 4 5
Jaime Jaquez Jr. 22 15 5 2
Kevin Love 17 10 2 0
Bam Adebayo S 31 10 12 1
Haywood Highsmith 28 9 6 3
Delon Wright 23 6 6 2
Caleb Martin S 24 5 5 1
Nikola Jovic S 14 5 5 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Joel Embiid S 38 23 15 5
Nicolas Batum 28 20 5 0
Tyrese Maxey S 44 19 3 6
Kelly Oubre Jr. S 37 11 8 1
Tobias Harris S 33 9 10 4
Kyle Lowry S 29 7 5 1
Buddy Hield 18 7 1 6
Paul Reed 10 6 2 0
Cameron Payne 3 3 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Tobias Harris · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:32 Q1
"Tobias Harris makes 18-foot two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Bam Adebayo MIA
11%
2 Joel Embiid PHI
11%
3 Tyrese Maxey PHI
10%
4 Jimmy Butler III MIA
10%
5 Tobias Harris PHI
9%
6 Kelly Oubre Jr. PHI
9%
7 Duncan Robinson MIA
6%
8 Mo Bamba PHI
6%
9 Tyler Herro MIA
6%
10 Terry Rozier MIA
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
9%
Dunk
9%
Free Throw
24%
Jumper
23%
Layup
35%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Joel Embiid PHI 31.7 9.7 5.3
2 Tyrese Maxey PHI 24.8 3.6 5.9
3 Tyler Herro MIA 21.4 4.8 5.2
4 Jimmy Butler III MIA 18.8 4.8 5.7
5 Tobias Harris PHI 17.8 7.5 2.8
6 Bam Adebayo MIA 17.6 9.2 4.2
7 Kelly Oubre Jr. PHI 17.2 6.6 2.2
8 Terry Rozier MIA 16.6 3.2 3.1
9 Nikola Jovic MIA 10.2 4.2 2.0
10 Caleb Martin MIA 9.8 3.3 3.0
11 Haywood Highsmith MIA 9.5 5.2 1.4
12 Buddy Hield PHI 9.3 3.2 1.5
13 Jaime Jaquez Jr. MIA 8.7 3.1 2.5
14 Duncan Robinson MIA 8.7 2.5 1.7
15 Josh Richardson MIA 8.7 3.1 1.7
16 Kyle Lowry PHI 8.6 2.6 3.6
17 Paul Reed PHI 8.2 6.3 1.4
18 Thomas Bryant MIA 7.9 5.4 0.8
19 Kevin Love MIA 7.7 5.0 1.2
20 Nicolas Batum PHI 7.4 4.0 2.2
21 Cameron Payne PHI 6.0 2.1 2.4
22 Delon Wright MIA 5.8 2.1 2.3
23 Mo Bamba PHI 5.1 5.3 0.7
24 Patty Mills MIA 5.0 1.2 1.5
25 KJ Martin PHI 3.8 2.7 0.9
26 Ricky Council IV PHI 3.7 1.1 0.8
27 Jeff Dowtin Jr. PHI 3.5 1.4 1.5
28 Terquavion Smith PHI 2.4 0.9 0.6
29 Orlando Robinson MIA 1.7 1.0 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.