NBA games

ATL @ CHI

NBA United Center ·Final
116–131
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
ATL22452524116
CHI40333721131

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (CHI) / 10 (ATL) games this season
ATL away
home CHI
25% 75%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Dejounte Murray S 46 30 7 6
Clint Capela S 38 22 17 4
Trae Young S 43 22 2 10
Bogdan Bogdanovic S 37 21 5 4
Garrison Mathews 13 8 0 0
De'Andre Hunter S 42 8 2 4
Bruno Fernando 10 5 1 1
Wesley Matthews 10 0 0 1
Mouhamed Gueye 2 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Coby White S 43 42 9 6
Nikola Vucevic S 37 24 12 2
DeMar DeRozan S 44 22 6 9
Ayo Dosunmu S 41 19 1 3
Javonte Green 23 10 6 4
Alex Caruso S 17 6 2 2
Dalen Terry 15 4 5 1
Andre Drummond 11 4 4 0
Torrey Craig 7 0 2 0
Jevon Carter 2 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Dejounte Murray · Jumper (2 pts) · 10:53 Q1
"Dejounte Murray makes 12-foot pullup jump shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 DeMar DeRozan CHI
14%
2 Dejounte Murray ATL
12%
3 Nikola Vucevic CHI
9%
4 Coby White CHI
8%
5 Ayo Dosunmu CHI
8%
6 Trae Young ATL
7%
7 De'Andre Hunter ATL
7%
8 Clint Capela ATL
7%
9 Bogdan Bogdanovic ATL
7%
10 Bruno Fernando ATL
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
2%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
84%
Jumper
4%
Layup
7%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 DeMar DeRozan CHI 29.2 4.4 7.2
2 Dejounte Murray ATL 24.1 5.6 7.9
3 Bogdan Bogdanovic ATL 19.6 4.2 3.9
4 Nikola Vucevic CHI 19.4 10.1 3.7
5 Coby White CHI 19.3 3.7 4.7
6 Trae Young ATL 18.8 3.3 10.9
7 Ayo Dosunmu CHI 18.4 3.1 4.3
8 De'Andre Hunter ATL 16.1 4.8 2.3
9 Javonte Green CHI 12.6 7.5 1.2
10 Alex Caruso CHI 12.4 4.3 5.7
11 Clint Capela ATL 12.0 10.2 1.7
12 Patrick Williams CHI 10.6 3.4 2.1
13 Bruno Fernando ATL 7.6 3.8 1.6
14 Andre Drummond CHI 7.6 9.1 0.7
15 Garrison Mathews ATL 7.2 1.7 1.0
16 Kobe Bufkin ATL 5.5 2.4 1.6
17 Jevon Carter CHI 5.4 1.7 2.0
18 Dalen Terry CHI 5.3 2.8 1.6
19 Torrey Craig CHI 4.6 3.2 0.9
20 Julian Phillips CHI 4.6 1.8 0.8
21 Mouhamed Gueye ATL 4.3 3.1 0.9
22 Wesley Matthews ATL 3.4 1.3 0.6
23 Trent Forrest ATL 3.4 1.5 3.0
24 AJ Griffin ATL 2.5 1.2 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.