NBA games

GS @ SAC

NBA Golden 1 Center ·Final
94–118
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
GS2228261894
SAC31233727118

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (SAC) / 10 (GS) games this season
GS away
home SAC
44% 56%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Stephen Curry S 36 22 4 2
Jonathan Kuminga 28 16 7 2
Moses Moody 15 16 3 1
Andrew Wiggins S 25 12 3 2
Draymond Green S 35 12 3 6
Brandin Podziemski 24 5 8 1
Lester Quinones 2 4 1 0
Chris Paul 18 3 1 2
Kevon Looney 9 2 5 1
Trayce Jackson-Davis S 11 2 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Keegan Murray S 39 32 9 0
De'Aaron Fox S 39 24 4 6
Harrison Barnes S 34 17 4 3
Domantas Sabonis S 37 16 12 7
Keon Ellis S 39 15 4 5
Trey Lyles 19 7 5 2
Davion Mitchell 17 5 5 3
JaVale McGee 2 2 0 0
Alex Len 9 0 4 1
Colby Jones 2 0 0 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Draymond Green · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:44 Q1
"Draymond Green makes 24-foot three point jumper (Andrew Wiggins assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Domantas Sabonis SAC
13%
2 Jonathan Kuminga GS
11%
3 De'Aaron Fox SAC
9%
4 Stephen Curry GS
9%
5 Andrew Wiggins GS
8%
6 Trayce Jackson-Davis GS
8%
7 Klay Thompson GS
8%
8 Harrison Barnes SAC
8%
9 Keegan Murray SAC
7%
10 Draymond Green GS
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
3%
Dunk
6%
Free Throw
32%
Jumper
36%
Layup
23%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 De'Aaron Fox SAC 25.3 4.8 6.1
2 Stephen Curry GS 22.5 4.7 6.3
3 Klay Thompson GS 19.6 3.7 3.2
4 Domantas Sabonis SAC 19.5 12.1 7.8
5 Jonathan Kuminga GS 16.2 5.2 3.2
6 Keegan Murray SAC 16.1 5.8 2.0
7 Andrew Wiggins GS 15.5 5.1 2.0
8 Harrison Barnes SAC 11.7 3.6 1.7
9 Trayce Jackson-Davis GS 10.9 7.1 1.6
10 Chris Paul GS 10.8 3.7 5.5
11 Keon Ellis SAC 10.3 3.9 2.0
12 Brandin Podziemski GS 10.0 5.5 3.0
13 Davion Mitchell SAC 9.8 2.6 2.6
14 Draymond Green GS 8.6 6.6 5.6
15 Moses Moody GS 7.9 2.7 1.3
16 Trey Lyles SAC 6.9 4.0 1.6
17 Sasha Vezenkov SAC 4.4 1.5 0.7
18 Kevon Looney GS 4.3 4.6 0.7
19 Gui Santos GS 3.5 1.6 0.8
20 Lester Quinones GS 3.2 1.3 0.7
21 Kessler Edwards SAC 3.2 1.1 0.7
22 Dario Saric GS 3.1 1.5 1.1
23 Chris Duarte SAC 3.1 1.2 0.6
24 Colby Jones SAC 3.0 1.8 0.8
25 JaVale McGee SAC 2.5 1.8 0.6
26 Alex Len SAC 2.3 2.4 1.4
27 Usman Garuba GS 2.1 1.6 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.