NBA games

LAL @ NO

NBA Smoothie King Center ·Final
110–106
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
LAL26342327110
NO34162630106

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (NO) / 10 (LAL) games this season
LAL away
home NO
60% 40%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
LeBron James S 41 23 9 9
D'Angelo Russell S 37 21 0 6
Anthony Davis S 40 20 15 0
Austin Reaves S 36 16 5 6
Rui Hachimura S 33 13 1 1
Gabe Vincent 18 9 4 1
Taurean Prince 22 6 4 0
Jaxson Hayes 8 2 1 0
Spencer Dinwiddie 5 0 2 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Zion Williamson S 36 40 11 5
Trey Murphy III 31 12 4 2
Brandon Ingram S 25 11 4 4
Jose Alvarado 25 10 2 7
Herbert Jones S 35 10 0 0
Larry Nance Jr. 28 10 12 5
CJ McCollum S 30 9 3 6
Jonas Valanciunas S 20 4 10 1
Dyson Daniels 10 0 4 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jonas Valanciunas · Free Throw (1 pts) · 11:30 Q1
"Jonas Valanciunas makes free throw 1 of 2"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Brandon Ingram NO
13%
2 Zion Williamson NO
12%
3 Anthony Davis LAL
12%
4 Rui Hachimura LAL
11%
5 Jonas Valanciunas NO
10%
6 Austin Reaves LAL
10%
7 LeBron James LAL
9%
8 Herbert Jones NO
8%
9 CJ McCollum NO
7%
10 D'Angelo Russell LAL
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
13%
Dunk
11%
Free Throw
20%
Jumper
30%
Layup
26%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 LeBron James LAL 27.7 7.8 9.9
2 Zion Williamson NO 25.5 6.7 5.8
3 Anthony Davis LAL 25.1 12.4 3.3
4 CJ McCollum NO 24.5 4.9 5.9
5 D'Angelo Russell LAL 18.3 3.8 6.1
6 Brandon Ingram NO 18.1 6.0 5.4
7 Trey Murphy III NO 17.3 6.4 3.0
8 Rui Hachimura LAL 16.9 6.3 2.1
9 Austin Reaves LAL 15.3 4.5 5.2
10 Herbert Jones NO 11.6 3.8 3.0
11 Jonas Valanciunas NO 10.0 6.2 2.3
12 Spencer Dinwiddie LAL 8.4 2.9 1.7
13 Dyson Daniels NO 8.3 4.2 2.7
14 Jose Alvarado NO 8.0 3.0 2.4
15 Larry Nance Jr. NO 7.9 4.1 2.6
16 Taurean Prince LAL 7.7 2.9 1.4
17 Jaxson Hayes LAL 5.9 4.3 1.1
18 Naji Marshall NO 5.6 2.9 1.2
19 Gabe Vincent LAL 4.6 1.5 1.7
20 Jeremiah Robinson-Earl NO 3.0 1.7 0.9
21 E.J. Liddell NO 2.9 1.5 0.7
22 Max Christie LAL 2.8 1.3 0.6
23 Matt Ryan NO 2.6 1.0 0.7
24 Cody Zeller NO 2.5 2.2 0.7
25 Cam Reddish LAL 2.4 1.0 0.4
26 Jordan Hawkins NO 2.3 0.9 0.5
27 Maxwell Lewis LAL 2.2 1.0 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.