NBA games

DAL @ GS

NBA Chase Center ·Final
100–104
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DAL27222526100
GS28213124104

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (GS) / 10 (DAL) games this season
DAL away
home GS
44% 56%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Luka Doncic S 39 30 12 11
Kyrie Irving S 39 27 1 2
P.J. Washington S 36 20 5 0
Daniel Gafford S 27 10 8 3
Tim Hardaway Jr. 26 7 3 3
Jaden Hardy 8 3 1 0
Dante Exum 21 3 3 4
Dwight Powell 9 0 3 1
Derrick Jones Jr. S 18 0 3 1
Maxi Kleber 17 0 3 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Andrew Wiggins S 33 23 4 2
Chris Paul 20 14 1 5
Klay Thompson S 28 14 3 2
Stephen Curry S 32 13 7 7
Moses Moody 20 12 3 0
Draymond Green S 31 11 8 6
Gary Payton II 16 8 2 0
Brandin Podziemski 31 5 10 5
Trayce Jackson-Davis S 21 4 10 1
Kevon Looney 10 0 4 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
P.J. Washington · 3PT (3 pts) · 10:55 Q1
"P.J. Washington makes 23-foot three point jumper (Luka Doncic assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Stephen Curry GS
16%
2 Kyrie Irving DAL
13%
3 Andrew Wiggins GS
11%
4 Trayce Jackson-Davis GS
10%
5 Daniel Gafford DAL
10%
6 P.J. Washington DAL
10%
7 Draymond Green GS
9%
8 Derrick Jones Jr. DAL
8%
9 Klay Thompson GS
8%
10 Luka Doncic DAL
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
21%
Dunk
3%
Free Throw
12%
Jumper
45%
Layup
19%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Luka Doncic DAL 29.8 10.2 9.9
2 Kyrie Irving DAL 24.3 4.5 6.6
3 Stephen Curry GS 22.7 4.0 5.2
4 Klay Thompson GS 17.1 3.2 3.1
5 Andrew Wiggins GS 15.3 6.1 1.8
6 Daniel Gafford DAL 12.4 8.0 2.2
7 Trayce Jackson-Davis GS 11.6 8.1 2.0
8 Draymond Green GS 10.2 7.4 5.8
9 P.J. Washington DAL 9.8 6.4 1.4
10 Chris Paul GS 9.8 4.1 5.2
11 Tim Hardaway Jr. DAL 8.1 2.6 2.0
12 Brandin Podziemski GS 7.6 5.1 2.4
13 Dante Exum DAL 7.3 2.1 2.4
14 Derrick Jones Jr. DAL 7.0 2.8 1.2
15 Moses Moody GS 6.9 2.4 1.1
16 Jaden Hardy DAL 4.9 1.3 1.3
17 Gary Payton II GS 4.4 2.2 1.3
18 Maxi Kleber DAL 4.2 2.2 1.3
19 Kevon Looney GS 3.9 3.2 0.9
20 Markieff Morris DAL 2.8 1.2 0.6
21 Lester Quinones GS 2.8 1.3 0.5
22 A.J. Lawson DAL 2.5 1.3 0.5
23 Dwight Powell DAL 2.2 1.2 0.6
24 Olivier-Maxence Prosper DAL 2.2 1.5 0.5
25 Jerome Robinson GS 2.0 0.8 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.