NBA games

GS @ UTAH

NBA Delta Center ·Final
140–137
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
GS36483620140
UTAH39323135137

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (UTAH) / 10 (GS) games this season
GS away
home UTAH
64% 36%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Klay Thompson 28 35 6 2
Draymond Green S 29 23 5 5
Andrew Wiggins S 29 19 7 2
Stephen Curry S 35 16 2 10
Jonathan Kuminga S 24 13 5 4
Brandin Podziemski S 34 13 6 8
Dario Saric 10 7 3 2
Lester Quinones 16 6 1 4
Trayce Jackson-Davis 8 4 1 2
Gary Payton II 15 4 3 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Collin Sexton S 34 35 3 9
Keyonte George S 41 33 2 6
Lauri Markkanen S 34 20 14 3
John Collins S 31 18 13 2
Jordan Clarkson 33 13 2 9
Kris Dunn 21 8 5 1
Walker Kessler S 25 4 6 2
Talen Horton-Tucker 5 3 0 1
Taylor Hendricks 16 3 3 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Lauri Markkanen · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:14 Q1
"Lauri Markkanen makes 24-foot three point jumper (Keyonte George assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 John Collins UTAH
14%
2 Collin Sexton UTAH
12%
3 Jonathan Kuminga GS
12%
4 Andrew Wiggins GS
10%
5 Walker Kessler UTAH
10%
6 Lauri Markkanen UTAH
9%
7 Keyonte George UTAH
8%
8 Draymond Green GS
8%
9 Stephen Curry GS
8%
10 Klay Thompson GS
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
11%
Dunk
10%
Free Throw
25%
Jumper
25%
Layup
30%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Stephen Curry GS 27.5 4.1 8.5
2 Jonathan Kuminga GS 23.4 6.6 4.0
3 Lauri Markkanen UTAH 22.5 7.4 2.5
4 Collin Sexton UTAH 20.3 3.0 6.4
5 Jordan Clarkson UTAH 17.4 2.9 4.2
6 John Collins UTAH 16.5 10.1 1.8
7 Klay Thompson GS 15.9 4.0 2.3
8 Andrew Wiggins GS 15.2 4.8 2.5
9 Brandin Podziemski GS 14.1 7.0 6.0
10 Keyonte George UTAH 14.0 3.2 4.1
11 Draymond Green GS 12.1 9.0 6.5
12 Talen Horton-Tucker UTAH 10.0 2.4 3.2
13 Walker Kessler UTAH 8.8 7.3 1.1
14 Moses Moody GS 7.5 2.5 0.9
15 Kris Dunn UTAH 7.1 2.8 3.8
16 Lester Quinones GS 6.7 3.1 1.6
17 Dario Saric GS 6.5 2.8 2.6
18 Gary Payton II GS 6.1 3.0 1.2
19 Taylor Hendricks UTAH 5.1 3.3 0.8
20 Gui Santos GS 4.4 2.7 0.8
21 Trayce Jackson-Davis GS 4.1 3.5 0.7
22 Kevon Looney GS 3.9 4.0 1.1
23 Otto Porter Jr. UTAH 3.1 1.7 0.8
24 Brice Sensabaugh UTAH 2.9 1.3 0.6
25 Kira Lewis Jr. UTAH 2.7 1.3 0.8
26 Luka Samanic UTAH 2.6 1.3 0.5
27 Omer Yurtseven UTAH 2.5 2.2 0.5
28 Jerome Robinson GS 1.8 1.1 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.