NBA games

SAC @ PHX

NBA Mortgage Matchup Center ·Final
114–106
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
SAC24263331114
PHX26331235106

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (PHX) / 10 (SAC) games this season
SAC away
home PHX
43% 57%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
De'Aaron Fox S 35 34 4 7
Domantas Sabonis S 38 15 17 5
Sasha Vezenkov 20 14 3 2
Malik Monk 28 13 2 6
Keegan Murray S 30 13 4 0
Keon Ellis 17 10 2 0
Harrison Barnes S 32 9 8 2
Trey Lyles 13 5 6 2
Kevin Huerter S 17 1 3 1
Chris Duarte 1 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Devin Booker S 38 28 7 7
Eric Gordon S 38 19 0 3
Jusuf Nurkic S 30 15 9 3
Chimezie Metu 23 10 4 1
Yuta Watanabe 24 9 2 1
Drew Eubanks 16 8 6 0
Jordan Goodwin 20 8 5 6
Keita Bates-Diop S 17 5 4 2
Saben Lee 1 4 0 0
Josh Okogie S 29 0 2 3

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Eric Gordon · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:16 Q1
"Eric Gordon makes 26-foot three point jumper (Devin Booker assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Devin Booker PHX
15%
2 Jusuf Nurkic PHX
14%
3 De'Aaron Fox SAC
14%
4 Domantas Sabonis SAC
14%
5 Harrison Barnes SAC
10%
6 Kevin Huerter SAC
9%
7 Keegan Murray SAC
8%
8 Eric Gordon PHX
8%
9 Chris Duarte SAC
7%
10 Trey Lyles SAC
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
12%
Dunk
3%
Free Throw
30%
Jumper
14%
Layup
41%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 De'Aaron Fox SAC 29.5 4.8 6.4
2 Devin Booker PHX 28.0 6.1 7.9
3 Domantas Sabonis SAC 21.7 10.9 6.3
4 Jusuf Nurkic PHX 16.5 9.9 3.5
5 Malik Monk SAC 15.7 3.3 3.8
6 Eric Gordon PHX 15.7 3.1 3.4
7 Kevin Huerter SAC 13.3 4.0 2.9
8 Keegan Murray SAC 12.5 5.6 1.9
9 Harrison Barnes SAC 11.6 3.4 1.9
10 Saben Lee PHX 7.7 2.3 2.6
11 Trey Lyles SAC 6.6 3.5 1.1
12 Nassir Little PHX 6.3 2.9 1.1
13 Josh Okogie PHX 6.1 3.7 1.3
14 Drew Eubanks PHX 6.1 3.7 1.1
15 Jordan Goodwin PHX 6.1 3.4 1.8
16 Keita Bates-Diop PHX 5.8 3.0 0.9
17 Sasha Vezenkov SAC 5.1 2.2 0.5
18 Yuta Watanabe PHX 4.7 1.9 0.7
19 Davion Mitchell SAC 4.6 0.9 1.9
20 Keon Ellis SAC 3.9 1.6 0.8
21 Bol Bol PHX 3.9 2.0 0.8
22 Chris Duarte SAC 3.6 1.7 0.6
23 JaVale McGee SAC 3.4 3.5 0.6
24 Chimezie Metu PHX 2.7 1.5 0.5
25 Kessler Edwards SAC 1.7 1.2 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.