NBA games

NY @ BOS

NBA TD Garden ·Final
123–133
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
NY32333028123
BOS33413524133

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (BOS) / 10 (NY) games this season
NY away
home BOS
37% 63%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
RJ Barrett S 31 23 3 3
Jalen Brunson S 34 23 1 4
Julius Randle S 34 20 5 3
Immanuel Quickley 25 17 0 1
Quentin Grimes 19 13 1 2
Mitchell Robinson S 19 10 8 2
Josh Hart 27 6 6 7
Donte DiVincenzo S 22 6 4 2
Isaiah Hartenstein 29 5 16 4
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Derrick White S 32 30 3 3
Jayson Tatum S 39 25 6 5
Kristaps Porzingis S 29 21 3 1
Jaylen Brown S 27 17 0 4
Jrue Holiday S 35 16 6 5
Al Horford 27 14 10 2
Payton Pritchard 19 5 2 2
Luke Kornet 11 4 1 1
Sam Hauser 21 1 3 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Kristaps Porzingis · Dunk (2 pts) · 11:38 Q1
"Kristaps Porzingis makes 1-foot dunk"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jayson Tatum BOS
12%
2 Jaylen Brown BOS
11%
3 RJ Barrett NY
11%
4 Kristaps Porzingis BOS
10%
5 Julius Randle NY
10%
6 Derrick White BOS
10%
7 Jalen Brunson NY
9%
8 Jrue Holiday BOS
8%
9 Mitchell Robinson NY
7%
10 Al Horford BOS
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
17%
Dunk
3%
Free Throw
31%
Jumper
21%
Layup
29%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jayson Tatum BOS 26.0 8.4 5.2
2 Jalen Brunson NY 25.9 4.0 6.4
3 Julius Randle NY 25.1 9.9 6.1
4 Jaylen Brown BOS 22.8 5.2 3.9
5 RJ Barrett NY 17.8 4.2 2.8
6 Kristaps Porzingis BOS 17.2 5.8 2.0
7 Derrick White BOS 16.6 3.8 5.9
8 Immanuel Quickley NY 13.8 2.8 2.0
9 Jrue Holiday BOS 12.8 6.2 4.5
10 Josh Hart NY 9.9 5.3 2.3
11 Al Horford BOS 9.9 6.4 2.6
12 Sam Hauser BOS 9.5 3.5 1.4
13 Donte DiVincenzo NY 8.5 2.6 1.8
14 Payton Pritchard BOS 6.9 2.5 1.8
15 Evan Fournier NY 6.6 1.8 0.6
16 Mitchell Robinson NY 6.5 8.8 1.0
17 Quentin Grimes NY 5.3 1.4 1.2
18 Isaiah Hartenstein NY 4.7 5.4 1.0
19 Luke Kornet BOS 4.0 3.7 0.5
20 Neemias Queta BOS 3.9 4.1 0.4
21 Lamar Stevens BOS 2.8 1.7 0.3
22 Svi Mykhailiuk BOS 2.8 0.7 0.5
23 Dalano Banton BOS 2.6 2.1 0.4
24 Miles McBride NY 2.2 0.7 0.5
25 Jericho Sims NY 1.8 1.1 0.4
26 Ryan Arcidiacono NY 1.8 1.0 0.4
27 DaQuan Jeffries NY 1.7 0.6 0.4
28 Oshae Brissett BOS 1.3 2.0 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.