NBA games

DAL @ POR

NBA Moda Center ·Final
125–112
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DAL37342628125
POR22383022112

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (POR) / 10 (DAL) games this season
DAL away
home POR
64% 36%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Luka Doncic S 41 32 6 10
Dante Exum S 33 23 6 7
Tim Hardaway Jr. 37 20 4 0
Derrick Jones Jr. S 39 14 8 1
Kyrie Irving S 13 11 2 2
Dereck Lively II S 28 10 9 2
Seth Curry 18 7 2 1
Dwight Powell 12 4 2 3
A.J. Lawson 7 2 1 0
Markieff Morris 7 2 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Anfernee Simons S 36 30 5 8
Shaedon Sharpe S 32 24 9 5
Toumani Camara S 32 14 9 0
Duop Reath S 21 10 6 1
Jabari Walker 27 10 3 2
Scoot Henderson 30 10 3 3
Matisse Thybulle S 36 9 8 1
Kris Murray 18 5 5 0
Justin Minaya 8 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Dereck Lively II · Layup (2 pts) · 11:47 Q1
"Dereck Lively II makes driving layup (Luka Doncic assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Luka Doncic DAL
15%
2 Kyrie Irving DAL
14%
3 Shaedon Sharpe POR
13%
4 Dereck Lively II DAL
13%
5 Dante Exum DAL
10%
6 Toumani Camara POR
10%
7 Duop Reath POR
9%
8 Derrick Jones Jr. DAL
9%
9 Anfernee Simons POR
8%
10 Markieff Morris DAL
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
26%
Dunk
1%
Free Throw
38%
Jumper
12%
Layup
23%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Luka Doncic DAL 31.2 8.0 8.3
2 Kyrie Irving DAL 24.8 4.4 4.2
3 Anfernee Simons POR 20.9 2.5 3.5
4 Shaedon Sharpe POR 18.9 5.9 4.1
5 Tim Hardaway Jr. DAL 14.7 3.3 1.9
6 Scoot Henderson POR 10.9 2.9 4.5
7 Derrick Jones Jr. DAL 10.6 4.3 1.3
8 Dereck Lively II DAL 10.0 8.3 1.4
9 Skylar Mays POR 9.7 2.5 5.2
10 Jabari Walker POR 9.5 5.5 1.4
11 Toumani Camara POR 8.6 4.2 1.5
12 Matisse Thybulle POR 7.6 2.7 1.7
13 Duop Reath POR 7.2 2.5 1.3
14 Dante Exum DAL 6.4 2.8 2.4
15 Seth Curry DAL 5.7 1.7 1.1
16 Jaden Hardy DAL 4.9 1.9 1.4
17 A.J. Lawson DAL 4.6 2.2 0.6
18 Markieff Morris DAL 3.6 1.3 0.7
19 Dwight Powell DAL 3.6 2.7 1.2
20 Kris Murray POR 3.6 1.6 0.8
21 Richaun Holmes DAL 3.5 3.7 0.6
22 Olivier-Maxence Prosper DAL 3.1 1.7 0.6
23 Moses Brown POR 2.5 2.6 0.3
24 Justin Minaya POR 2.0 1.0 0.6
25 Rayan Rupert POR 1.6 0.8 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.