NBA games

HOU @ DEN

NBA Ball Arena ·Final
114–106
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
HOU27254022114
DEN22262632106

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (DEN) / 10 (HOU) games this season
HOU away
home DEN
60% 40%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Fred VanVleet S 40 26 4 3
Jalen Green S 35 25 3 1
Alperen Sengun S 34 17 10 7
Dillon Brooks S 33 16 5 1
Jabari Smith Jr. S 25 9 10 5
Aaron Holiday 16 8 1 1
Jae'Sean Tate 13 5 2 0
Jeff Green 27 5 4 1
Tari Eason 17 3 8 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Nikola Jokic S 34 23 16 5
Jamal Murray S 32 21 5 3
Michael Porter Jr. S 40 20 8 0
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope S 25 14 0 0
Peyton Watson 26 13 4 2
Reggie Jackson 25 6 3 6
Aaron Gordon S 22 3 6 3
Justin Holiday 6 2 0 0
DeAndre Jordan 12 2 4 2
Christian Braun 14 2 1 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Alperen Sengun · Layup (2 pts) · 11:16 Q1
"Alperen Sengun makes driving layup (Jabari Smith Jr. assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Nikola Jokic DEN
13%
2 Jalen Green HOU
12%
3 Alperen Sengun HOU
11%
4 Jamal Murray DEN
11%
5 Aaron Gordon DEN
10%
6 Dillon Brooks HOU
9%
7 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope DEN
9%
8 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU
9%
9 Fred VanVleet HOU
8%
10 Michael Porter Jr. DEN
8%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
4%
Dunk
3%
Free Throw
73%
Jumper
10%
Layup
10%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Nikola Jokic DEN 29.8 11.4 8.8
2 Alperen Sengun HOU 24.9 10.3 5.4
3 Jalen Green HOU 20.1 5.0 4.1
4 Fred VanVleet HOU 17.4 4.4 8.8
5 Reggie Jackson DEN 17.2 3.5 5.8
6 Jamal Murray DEN 17.0 3.4 6.6
7 Michael Porter Jr. DEN 16.7 7.4 2.3
8 Dillon Brooks HOU 13.9 3.2 1.9
9 Aaron Gordon DEN 13.9 7.4 3.3
10 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU 13.7 9.2 1.7
11 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope DEN 13.1 2.9 3.3
12 Aaron Holiday HOU 9.0 2.6 2.4
13 Christian Braun DEN 8.8 3.7 1.5
14 Tari Eason HOU 6.7 5.7 1.2
15 DeAndre Jordan DEN 5.6 4.1 1.6
16 Julian Strawther DEN 5.4 1.8 1.3
17 Jae'Sean Tate HOU 5.0 3.3 1.1
18 Justin Holiday DEN 4.9 1.7 1.0
19 Jeff Green HOU 4.7 1.5 0.6
20 Peyton Watson DEN 4.6 2.6 0.9
21 Nate Williams HOU 3.6 1.1 0.4
22 Reggie Bullock Jr. HOU 2.9 1.6 0.7
23 Hunter Tyson DEN 2.8 1.3 0.4
24 Zeke Nnaji DEN 2.7 1.8 0.3
25 Boban Marjanovic HOU 2.3 2.1 0.6
26 Jalen Pickett DEN 2.1 0.7 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.