NBA games

CHI @ SA

NBA Frost Bank Center ·Final
121–112
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
CHI24283534121
SA33302029112

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (SA) / 10 (CHI) games this season
CHI away
home SA
71% 29%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Coby White S 39 24 4 6
Nikola Vucevic S 36 21 16 2
Patrick Williams S 34 20 6 3
DeMar DeRozan S 39 20 6 10
Torrey Craig 23 16 8 0
Andre Drummond 12 7 8 0
Alex Caruso S 18 4 3 2
Ayo Dosunmu 26 4 3 3
Jevon Carter 9 3 0 1
Julian Phillips 4 2 2 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Victor Wembanyama S 32 21 20 4
Keldon Johnson S 35 20 2 5
Tre Jones 28 18 5 8
Zach Collins 23 12 10 5
Devin Vassell S 34 11 2 5
Malaki Branham S 23 10 0 2
Doug McDermott 15 9 1 1
Cedi Osman 10 7 1 1
Jeremy Sochan S 34 4 3 4
Julian Champagnie 6 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Patrick Williams · Free Throw (1 pts) · 10:53 Q1
"Patrick Williams makes free throw 1 of 2"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Nikola Vucevic CHI
14%
2 Victor Wembanyama SA
12%
3 Keldon Johnson SA
12%
4 Zach Collins SA
11%
5 DeMar DeRozan CHI
10%
6 Devin Vassell SA
9%
7 Coby White CHI
8%
8 Patrick Williams CHI
8%
9 Cedi Osman SA
8%
10 Alex Caruso CHI
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
11%
Dunk
6%
Free Throw
5%
Jumper
43%
Layup
34%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 DeMar DeRozan CHI 23.3 4.4 5.7
2 Coby White CHI 20.0 4.2 5.1
3 Keldon Johnson SA 19.3 7.3 4.3
4 Victor Wembanyama SA 19.3 11.0 3.4
5 Devin Vassell SA 17.6 3.5 3.2
6 Nikola Vucevic CHI 15.5 9.3 3.7
7 Zach Collins SA 15.0 6.1 4.1
8 Jeremy Sochan SA 13.6 4.8 4.1
9 Alex Caruso CHI 11.9 3.5 2.6
10 Patrick Williams CHI 11.0 4.8 1.5
11 Tre Jones SA 8.3 2.8 4.0
12 Cedi Osman SA 8.2 2.7 1.8
13 Ayo Dosunmu CHI 7.6 2.2 2.2
14 Malaki Branham SA 7.3 1.9 1.8
15 Julian Champagnie SA 7.3 2.7 1.5
16 Torrey Craig CHI 6.2 3.6 1.2
17 Doug McDermott SA 5.8 1.5 2.0
18 Andre Drummond CHI 5.3 6.8 0.8
19 Jevon Carter CHI 4.6 1.5 1.4
20 Devonte' Graham SA 3.3 0.9 1.3
21 Sandro Mamukelashvili SA 2.7 1.1 0.8
22 Dalen Terry CHI 2.6 1.8 0.9
23 Blake Wesley SA 2.5 1.0 1.4
24 Julian Phillips CHI 2.4 1.4 0.7
25 Charles Bassey SA 2.4 4.0 0.7
26 Terry Taylor CHI 2.2 1.7 0.5
27 Dominick Barlow SA 2.0 0.9 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.