NBA games

GS @ OKC

NBA Paycom Center ·Final
136–138
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4Q5T
GS2834223418136
OKC1937332920138

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (OKC) / 10 (GS) games this season
GS away
home OKC
25% 75%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Stephen Curry S 40 34 6 3
Jonathan Kuminga 29 24 12 0
Klay Thompson S 39 22 4 0
Brandin Podziemski 23 12 6 4
Draymond Green S 35 12 5 13
Andrew Wiggins S 32 12 6 1
Dario Saric 23 11 12 3
Kevon Looney S 16 5 4 2
Moses Moody 16 2 4 0
Cory Joseph 13 2 1 3
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander S 42 38 5 5
Jalen Williams S 40 28 5 2
Chet Holmgren S 35 21 7 1
Luguentz Dort S 39 16 5 1
Cason Wallace 24 10 1 0
Josh Giddey S 25 9 9 4
Aaron Wiggins 22 9 3 1
Isaiah Joe 23 5 1 1
Kenrich Williams 9 2 2 0
Jaylin Williams 6 0 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Josh Giddey · Layup (2 pts) · 11:09 Q1
"Josh Giddey makes 1-foot layup (Luguentz Dort assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Chet Holmgren OKC
13%
2 Jalen Williams OKC
12%
3 Andrew Wiggins GS
12%
4 Stephen Curry GS
12%
5 Josh Giddey OKC
10%
6 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC
9%
7 Kevon Looney GS
9%
8 Klay Thompson GS
8%
9 Draymond Green GS
8%
10 Luguentz Dort OKC
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
17%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
20%
Jumper
41%
Layup
17%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC 31.5 4.8 6.7
2 Stephen Curry GS 26.0 5.1 5.2
3 Jalen Williams OKC 19.2 4.2 3.8
4 Chet Holmgren OKC 19.1 8.2 3.0
5 Klay Thompson GS 15.1 3.9 2.6
6 Andrew Wiggins GS 15.0 5.1 1.9
7 Dario Saric GS 12.9 4.7 3.0
8 Josh Giddey OKC 12.8 5.6 3.7
9 Draymond Green GS 12.4 6.1 4.9
10 Moses Moody GS 10.2 4.0 1.3
11 Chris Paul GS 9.9 3.0 6.2
12 Isaiah Joe OKC 9.8 3.0 1.4
13 Brandin Podziemski GS 9.4 4.7 2.1
14 Jonathan Kuminga GS 9.3 3.3 1.5
15 Luguentz Dort OKC 7.3 3.3 1.4
16 Cason Wallace OKC 7.2 2.8 1.4
17 Kevon Looney GS 6.6 7.6 2.1
18 Kenrich Williams OKC 6.0 2.7 1.6
19 Aaron Wiggins OKC 5.6 2.4 1.0
20 Tre Mann OKC 5.5 2.3 1.8
21 Jaylin Williams OKC 5.0 3.1 1.4
22 Davis Bertans OKC 4.4 1.0 0.6
23 Gary Payton II GS 4.0 2.6 0.7
24 Vasilije Micic OKC 3.6 0.7 2.9
25 Trayce Jackson-Davis GS 2.5 1.8 0.4
26 Ousmane Dieng OKC 2.4 1.3 0.7
27 Cory Joseph GS 2.2 0.8 1.4
28 Aleksej Pokusevski OKC 1.5 0.7 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.