NBA games

MIN @ MEM

NBA FedExForum ·Final
127–103
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MIN33273829127
MEM31242424103

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MEM) / 10 (MIN) games this season
MIN away
home MEM
61% 39%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Karl-Anthony Towns S 29 24 7 5
Troy Brown Jr. 30 20 4 4
Mike Conley S 32 19 4 7
Shake Milton 22 17 2 1
Rudy Gobert S 36 16 20 1
Nickeil Alexander-Walker S 34 14 2 2
Naz Reid 24 10 9 2
Kyle Anderson 22 7 6 5
Wendell Moore Jr. 3 0 0 1
Anthony Edwards S 4 0 0 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jaren Jackson Jr. S 29 21 2 1
Desmond Bane S 37 16 2 1
David Roddy S 25 13 3 0
Xavier Tillman 17 12 2 0
Santi Aldama 24 9 10 6
Jaylen Nowell 20 8 0 2
Derrick Rose S 22 6 1 7
Kenneth Lofton Jr. 4 5 0 2
Vince Williams Jr. 17 4 2 1
Ziaire Williams 4 4 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Rudy Gobert · Layup (2 pts) · 11:22 Q1
"Rudy Gobert makes tip shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Anthony Edwards MIN
14%
2 Desmond Bane MEM
13%
3 Jaren Jackson Jr. MEM
12%
4 Rudy Gobert MIN
12%
5 Karl-Anthony Towns MIN
10%
6 Bismack Biyombo MEM
8%
7 Mike Conley MIN
8%
8 Derrick Rose MEM
8%
9 Nickeil Alexander-Walker MIN
7%
10 David Roddy MEM
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
16%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
12%
Jumper
52%
Layup
16%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Anthony Edwards MIN 24.5 5.5 5.3
2 Desmond Bane MEM 24.5 4.4 6.4
3 Karl-Anthony Towns MIN 23.7 8.7 4.2
4 Jaren Jackson Jr. MEM 18.4 6.0 1.8
5 Santi Aldama MEM 15.3 6.3 2.3
6 Rudy Gobert MIN 15.2 11.0 1.3
7 Naz Reid MIN 11.8 4.4 1.3
8 Mike Conley MIN 11.6 2.7 6.0
9 Nickeil Alexander-Walker MIN 9.9 2.7 2.4
10 Derrick Rose MEM 9.3 2.3 2.9
11 David Roddy MEM 9.0 4.3 1.5
12 Kyle Anderson MIN 7.8 4.0 3.2
13 Bismack Biyombo MEM 7.2 5.9 2.3
14 Xavier Tillman MEM 7.2 4.8 1.8
15 Troy Brown Jr. MIN 6.5 3.1 1.2
16 Luka Garza MIN 6.0 2.2 0.6
17 Ziaire Williams MEM 5.9 2.3 1.1
18 Jaylen Nowell MEM 5.7 1.8 1.3
19 Shake Milton MIN 5.6 2.1 1.4
20 Vince Williams Jr. MEM 4.9 3.4 1.1
21 Jacob Gilyard MEM 4.7 1.3 2.4
22 John Konchar MEM 4.5 3.4 1.3
23 Jordan McLaughlin MIN 3.7 1.3 1.6
24 Wendell Moore Jr. MIN 3.0 0.9 1.3
25 Kenneth Lofton Jr. MEM 1.9 1.0 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.