NBA games

CLE @ MIA

NBA Kaseya Center ·Final
111–99
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
CLE17363523111
MIA2527232499

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MIA) / 10 (CLE) games this season
CLE away
home MIA
39% 61%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Donovan Mitchell S 36 27 13 6
Darius Garland S 26 18 2 6
Georges Niang 20 13 3 2
Max Strus S 34 11 7 1
Sam Merrill 10 9 3 1
Isaac Okoro 22 9 1 0
Craig Porter Jr. 23 8 3 4
Jarrett Allen S 25 6 9 1
Tristan Thompson 16 5 3 0
Dean Wade S 25 5 6 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Josh Richardson 31 17 1 2
Kyle Lowry S 32 17 2 5
Jimmy Butler III S 36 16 5 2
Caleb Martin S 34 15 6 4
Kevin Love 28 14 12 3
Jaime Jaquez Jr. 35 14 3 3
Orlando Robinson S 20 5 8 3
Duncan Robinson S 23 1 0 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Darius Garland · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:41 Q1
"Darius Garland makes 11-foot two point shot (Jarrett Allen assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Donovan Mitchell CLE
18%
2 Darius Garland CLE
16%
3 Jarrett Allen CLE
13%
4 Jimmy Butler III MIA
11%
5 Caleb Martin MIA
9%
6 Max Strus CLE
8%
7 Duncan Robinson MIA
8%
8 Orlando Robinson MIA
8%
9 Kyle Lowry MIA
7%
10 Dean Wade CLE
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
16%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
19%
Jumper
36%
Layup
27%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jimmy Butler III MIA 25.3 4.8 5.0
2 Donovan Mitchell CLE 25.0 5.6 5.6
3 Darius Garland CLE 22.6 3.3 6.4
4 Duncan Robinson MIA 17.7 3.4 3.6
5 Jaime Jaquez Jr. MIA 16.5 4.1 3.2
6 Jarrett Allen CLE 15.6 8.9 2.8
7 Max Strus CLE 15.3 4.7 4.9
8 Josh Richardson MIA 13.6 3.3 3.3
9 Caleb Martin MIA 12.0 3.9 1.9
10 Kyle Lowry MIA 11.3 3.9 3.4
11 Georges Niang CLE 10.0 4.0 1.7
12 Kevin Love MIA 7.5 5.6 2.5
13 Orlando Robinson MIA 7.2 4.7 1.7
14 Craig Porter Jr. CLE 6.8 1.8 2.1
15 Isaac Okoro CLE 6.7 3.0 1.5
16 Jamal Cain MIA 5.8 3.8 0.6
17 Nikola Jovic MIA 5.5 3.9 1.7
18 Cole Swider MIA 5.4 1.0 0.9
19 Dean Wade CLE 4.5 3.9 1.0
20 Thomas Bryant MIA 3.7 2.9 0.4
21 Tristan Thompson CLE 2.8 2.3 0.6
22 Isaiah Mobley CLE 2.6 1.5 0.8
23 Sam Merrill CLE 2.5 0.8 0.5
24 Damian Jones CLE 1.2 0.9 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.