NBA games

ATL @ PHI

NBA Xfinity Mobile Arena ·Final
114–125
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
ATL23452422114
PHI35273132125

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (PHI) / 10 (ATL) games this season
ATL away
home PHI
22% 78%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
De'Andre Hunter S 37 24 7 1
Dejounte Murray S 36 20 4 9
Bogdan Bogdanovic S 39 20 9 2
Saddiq Bey S 38 16 8 1
Clint Capela S 30 15 16 2
Onyeka Okongwu 18 7 8 2
Trent Forrest 13 6 1 1
Patty Mills 17 3 1 2
Wesley Matthews 10 3 0 0
Garrison Mathews 3 0 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Joel Embiid S 36 38 14 3
Tyrese Maxey S 39 30 2 7
De'Anthony Melton S 34 15 6 5
Tobias Harris S 34 13 8 2
Kelly Oubre Jr. 24 11 3 1
Nicolas Batum S 29 8 4 4
Patrick Beverley 18 5 1 1
Marcus Morris Sr. 16 3 3 1
Paul Reed 6 2 4 0
Mo Bamba 5 0 3 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Joel Embiid · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:45 Q1
"Joel Embiid makes 5-foot two point shot (Nicolas Batum assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Joel Embiid PHI
25%
2 Tyrese Maxey PHI
12%
3 Tobias Harris PHI
11%
4 Dejounte Murray ATL
10%
5 De'Andre Hunter ATL
10%
6 Clint Capela ATL
9%
7 Saddiq Bey ATL
9%
8 De'Anthony Melton PHI
7%
9 Nicolas Batum PHI
6%
10 Bogdan Bogdanovic ATL
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
1%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
70%
Jumper
19%
Layup
9%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Joel Embiid PHI 34.1 12.6 7.9
2 Tyrese Maxey PHI 25.6 3.9 6.8
3 Dejounte Murray ATL 19.4 4.1 5.3
4 De'Anthony Melton PHI 17.2 4.7 3.7
5 Bogdan Bogdanovic ATL 17.1 4.1 2.1
6 Tobias Harris PHI 16.7 5.7 2.9
7 Kelly Oubre Jr. PHI 15.8 4.8 1.7
8 De'Andre Hunter ATL 15.0 4.2 1.7
9 Saddiq Bey ATL 14.6 5.9 1.8
10 Clint Capela ATL 11.7 10.4 1.4
11 Onyeka Okongwu ATL 8.7 6.3 1.5
12 Nicolas Batum PHI 8.6 4.6 2.1
13 Patrick Beverley PHI 7.5 3.1 3.2
14 Robert Covington PHI 7.4 5.1 1.2
15 Paul Reed PHI 6.4 4.2 1.2
16 Marcus Morris Sr. PHI 5.8 2.6 0.9
17 Wesley Matthews ATL 3.6 1.5 0.9
18 Danuel House Jr. PHI 3.6 1.3 0.8
19 Garrison Mathews ATL 3.4 1.5 0.6
20 Mo Bamba PHI 3.2 2.4 0.5
21 Trent Forrest ATL 3.1 0.9 1.8
22 Jaden Springer PHI 3.1 1.9 0.9
23 Bruno Fernando ATL 2.8 2.2 0.8
24 AJ Griffin ATL 2.4 0.8 0.4
25 KJ Martin PHI 2.3 1.3 0.5
26 Furkan Korkmaz PHI 1.8 0.8 0.5
27 Patty Mills ATL 1.7 0.6 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.