NBA games

DET @ ORL

NBA Kia Center ·Final
91–123
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DET2321242391
ORL28303530123

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (ORL) / 10 (DET) games this season
DET away
home ORL
14% 86%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Cade Cunningham S 32 21 3 6
Killian Hayes S 32 16 7 4
Alec Burks 13 14 3 0
Bojan Bogdanovic S 29 9 3 1
Marvin Bagley III S 23 9 5 0
Jaden Ivey 21 8 2 0
Ausar Thompson 20 5 2 2
Marcus Sasser 5 4 0 1
Isaiah Stewart S 29 3 6 2
James Wiseman 16 2 5 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Franz Wagner S 31 27 2 3
Paolo Banchero S 30 24 4 2
Cole Anthony 24 16 3 6
Goga Bitadze S 28 13 8 2
Gary Harris S 23 11 3 1
Jett Howard 5 6 1 1
Anthony Black S 25 6 5 3
Joe Ingles 16 6 4 5
Caleb Houstan 25 6 4 1
Moritz Wagner 16 4 5 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Paolo Banchero · Free Throw (1 pts) · 11:30 Q1
"Paolo Banchero makes free throw 1 of 2"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Franz Wagner ORL
17%
2 Paolo Banchero ORL
17%
3 Cade Cunningham DET
17%
4 Goga Bitadze ORL
13%
5 Isaiah Stewart DET
12%
6 Anthony Black ORL
12%
7 Killian Hayes DET
11%
8 Cole Anthony ORL
0%
9 Marvin Bagley III DET
0%
10 Isaiah Livers DET
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
9%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
42%
Jumper
24%
Layup
20%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Paolo Banchero ORL 25.2 6.7 5.3
2 Franz Wagner ORL 24.6 6.1 4.6
3 Cade Cunningham DET 23.9 4.4 8.1
4 Cole Anthony ORL 20.0 5.5 4.9
5 Moritz Wagner ORL 14.5 4.4 1.8
6 Jaden Ivey DET 12.9 3.4 3.3
7 Isaiah Stewart DET 10.1 6.0 1.4
8 Ausar Thompson DET 10.1 6.9 1.5
9 Killian Hayes DET 9.0 3.1 3.2
10 Gary Harris ORL 8.8 2.3 2.3
11 Alec Burks DET 7.7 2.0 1.6
12 Goga Bitadze ORL 7.4 6.4 2.3
13 Marvin Bagley III DET 7.3 4.7 0.9
14 Kevin Knox II DET 7.3 2.7 0.7
15 Isaiah Livers DET 7.1 2.2 1.4
16 Joe Ingles ORL 7.1 2.7 4.0
17 Marcus Sasser DET 5.9 1.4 2.1
18 Anthony Black ORL 5.4 2.4 1.5
19 Joe Harris DET 5.0 1.3 0.9
20 James Wiseman DET 4.6 3.1 0.6
21 Caleb Houstan ORL 3.7 1.7 0.8
22 Jett Howard ORL 3.5 0.7 0.5
23 Chuma Okeke ORL 2.1 0.8 0.6
24 Admiral Schofield ORL 2.0 1.4 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.