NBA games

TOR @ CHA

NBA Spectrum Center ·Final
116–119
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
TOR22322339116
CHA35312429119

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (CHA) / 10 (TOR) games this season
TOR away
home CHA
49% 51%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Scottie Barnes S 36 31 10 10
Pascal Siakam S 33 25 5 4
Precious Achiuwa 22 17 10 1
OG Anunoby S 36 11 3 4
Chris Boucher 13 9 3 0
Jakob Poeltl S 26 8 8 1
Malachi Flynn 17 8 0 4
Dennis Schroder S 30 7 1 5
Otto Porter Jr. 6 0 0 1
Gary Trent Jr. 20 0 2 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Gordon Hayward S 35 24 4 4
Miles Bridges S 38 22 8 3
Terry Rozier S 40 21 2 13
Brandon Miller S 35 20 5 3
Nick Richards 26 15 8 0
P.J. Washington 25 11 1 2
Mark Williams S 20 4 3 1
Ish Smith 14 2 0 4
Bryce McGowens 7 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Scottie Barnes · Dunk (2 pts) · 11:01 Q1
"Scottie Barnes makes 1-foot dunk"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 LaMelo Ball CHA
11%
2 Pascal Siakam TOR
10%
3 Terry Rozier CHA
10%
4 Scottie Barnes TOR
9%
5 Brandon Miller CHA
8%
6 Mark Williams CHA
8%
7 Dennis Schroder TOR
8%
8 Jakob Poeltl TOR
8%
9 Nick Richards CHA
7%
10 Miles Bridges CHA
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
17%
Dunk
1%
Free Throw
54%
Jumper
11%
Layup
17%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 LaMelo Ball CHA 28.0 5.8 8.4
2 Pascal Siakam TOR 24.8 7.3 5.5
3 Terry Rozier CHA 24.2 4.2 6.8
4 Miles Bridges CHA 21.1 6.8 3.2
5 Scottie Barnes TOR 20.0 8.7 5.5
6 Dennis Schroder TOR 18.1 3.8 6.3
7 Brandon Miller CHA 15.7 4.2 2.7
8 OG Anunoby TOR 14.1 4.7 3.1
9 Gordon Hayward CHA 13.1 4.6 4.0
10 Jakob Poeltl TOR 13.0 9.5 2.7
11 P.J. Washington CHA 12.4 4.9 2.8
12 Mark Williams CHA 11.5 10.0 1.2
13 Gary Trent Jr. TOR 11.3 2.4 1.8
14 Nick Richards CHA 8.5 7.1 0.9
15 Precious Achiuwa TOR 7.7 5.5 1.9
16 Bryce McGowens CHA 6.1 2.1 1.2
17 Chris Boucher TOR 5.9 2.7 0.7
18 Malachi Flynn TOR 5.6 2.5 1.8
19 Ish Smith CHA 5.4 2.1 2.8
20 Otto Porter Jr. TOR 4.2 2.7 0.6
21 JT Thor CHA 3.6 1.9 0.6
22 Theo Maledon CHA 3.3 1.2 1.8
23 Jalen McDaniels TOR 2.9 1.2 0.5
24 Thaddeus Young TOR 2.7 1.7 0.7
25 Garrett Temple TOR 2.1 0.6 0.4
26 Leaky Black CHA 1.5 0.8 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.