NBA games

DEN @ LAC

NBA crypto.com Arena ·Final
102–111
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DEN36212520102
LAC21401832111

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (LAC) / 10 (DEN) games this season
DEN away
home LAC
35% 65%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jamal Murray S 29 23 0 6
Nikola Jokic S 37 22 15 10
Michael Porter Jr. S 34 18 9 0
Reggie Jackson 19 14 1 3
Aaron Gordon S 31 8 6 2
Christian Braun 16 8 5 0
DeAndre Jordan 11 4 5 0
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope S 34 3 1 3
Peyton Watson 16 2 3 3
Julian Strawther 13 0 1 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Paul George S 38 25 8 1
James Harden S 32 20 1 11
Norman Powell 32 17 5 2
Kawhi Leonard S 38 17 4 5
Ivica Zubac S 27 10 9 0
Russell Westbrook 16 9 8 1
Daniel Theis 21 8 11 0
Kobe Brown 17 3 4 1
Terance Mann S 20 2 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Nikola Jokic · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:25 Q1
"Nikola Jokic makes 26-foot three point jumper (Aaron Gordon assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Paul George LAC
14%
2 Nikola Jokic DEN
13%
3 Aaron Gordon DEN
9%
4 Kawhi Leonard LAC
9%
5 Reggie Jackson DEN
9%
6 Ivica Zubac LAC
8%
7 Jamal Murray DEN
8%
8 Terance Mann LAC
7%
9 Michael Porter Jr. DEN
7%
10 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope DEN
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
33%
Dunk
3%
Free Throw
22%
Jumper
16%
Layup
26%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Nikola Jokic DEN 30.5 11.6 9.6
2 Paul George LAC 24.0 5.8 4.9
3 Kawhi Leonard LAC 23.6 6.1 3.5
4 James Harden LAC 18.0 4.1 7.4
5 Reggie Jackson DEN 17.4 3.6 5.7
6 Michael Porter Jr. DEN 16.8 7.7 2.1
7 Jamal Murray DEN 16.7 3.4 6.0
8 Aaron Gordon DEN 14.2 8.1 3.6
9 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope DEN 13.5 2.8 3.6
10 Ivica Zubac LAC 13.1 10.0 1.4
11 Norman Powell LAC 10.8 2.3 1.1
12 Christian Braun DEN 10.3 4.0 1.6
13 Russell Westbrook LAC 10.0 5.9 4.3
14 Terance Mann LAC 7.6 3.6 1.7
15 Daniel Theis LAC 6.1 3.6 1.0
16 Bones Hyland LAC 6.0 1.2 1.6
17 Justin Holiday DEN 5.1 1.8 1.0
18 DeAndre Jordan DEN 4.5 3.7 1.5
19 Julian Strawther DEN 4.4 1.5 1.0
20 Peyton Watson DEN 3.5 1.8 0.5
21 Zeke Nnaji DEN 2.9 2.0 0.3
22 Braxton Key DEN 2.5 1.9 0.7
23 Kobe Brown LAC 2.4 1.3 0.5
24 P.J. Tucker LAC 2.4 1.8 0.7
25 Collin Gillespie DEN 2.1 0.7 0.6
26 Amir Coffey LAC 1.7 0.9 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.